Mauro Mendes (União Brasil), the recently departed governor of Mato Grosso, holds the strongest position for first place in the October 4, 2026, Senate contest due to his high statewide visibility and consistent lead in recent Real Time Big Data and Percent Brasil surveys. Polling shows him narrowly ahead or statistically tied with Janaina Riva (MDB) in the mid-20s for the two available seats, while trailing candidates including Carlos Fávaro (PSD), Pedro Taques (PSB), and José Medeiros register in the low teens amid a fragmented field of more than a dozen entrants formalized after August party conventions. A Federal Police operation launched in mid-August has drawn public rebuttals from Mendes, who links it to opposition complaints, yet has not altered his polling edge or market pricing. Traders price these dynamics as the dominant driver of implied probabilities ahead of the general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMauro Mendes 66%
Janaina Riva 14.3%
Beny Godoy 4.3%
Fávaro 3.8%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Mauro Mendes
66%
Janaina Riva
14%
Beny Godoy
4%
Fávaro
4%
Pedro Taques
4%
Galvan
3%
Coronel Darwin
2%
Jose Medeiros
2%
Professor Nelson Ferreira
1%
Margareth Buzetti
1%
Mauro Mendes 66%
Janaina Riva 14.3%
Beny Godoy 4.3%
Fávaro 3.8%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Mauro Mendes
$5,793 Vol.
66%
Janaina Riva
$164 Vol.
14%
Beny Godoy
$93 Vol.
4%
Fávaro
$378 Vol.
4%
Pedro Taques
$64 Vol.
4%
Galvan
$167 Vol.
3%
Coronel Darwin
$114 Vol.
2%
Jose Medeiros
$64 Vol.
2%
Professor Nelson Ferreira
$135 Vol.
1%
Margareth Buzetti
$64 Vol.
1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Mauro Mendes (União Brasil), the recently departed governor of Mato Grosso, holds the strongest position for first place in the October 4, 2026, Senate contest due to his high statewide visibility and consistent lead in recent Real Time Big Data and Percent Brasil surveys. Polling shows him narrowly ahead or statistically tied with Janaina Riva (MDB) in the mid-20s for the two available seats, while trailing candidates including Carlos Fávaro (PSD), Pedro Taques (PSB), and José Medeiros register in the low teens amid a fragmented field of more than a dozen entrants formalized after August party conventions. A Federal Police operation launched in mid-August has drawn public rebuttals from Mendes, who links it to opposition complaints, yet has not altered his polling edge or market pricing. Traders price these dynamics as the dominant driver of implied probabilities ahead of the general election.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Volume
$7,035End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Mauro Mendes (União Brasil), the recently departed governor of Mato Grosso, holds the strongest position for first place in the October 4, 2026, Senate contest due to his high statewide visibility and consistent lead in recent Real Time Big Data and Percent Brasil surveys. Polling shows him narrowly ahead or statistically tied with Janaina Riva (MDB) in the mid-20s for the two available seats, while trailing candidates including Carlos Fávaro (PSD), Pedro Taques (PSB), and José Medeiros register in the low teens amid a fragmented field of more than a dozen entrants formalized after August party conventions. A Federal Police operation launched in mid-August has drawn public rebuttals from Mendes, who links it to opposition complaints, yet has not altered his polling edge or market pricing. Traders price these dynamics as the dominant driver of implied probabilities ahead of the general election.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$7,035End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mauro Mendes (União Brasil), the recently departed governor of Mato Grosso, holds the strongest position for first place in the October 4, 2026, Senate contest due to his high statewide visibility and consistent lead in recent Real Time Big Data and Percent Brasil surveys. Polling shows him narrowly ahead or statistically tied with Janaina Riva (MDB) in the mid-20s for the two available seats, while trailing candidates including Carlos Fávaro (PSD), Pedro Taques (PSB), and José Medeiros register in the low teens amid a fragmented field of more than a dozen entrants formalized after August party conventions. A Federal Police operation launched in mid-August has drawn public rebuttals from Mendes, who links it to opposition complaints, yet has not altered his polling edge or market pricing. Traders price these dynamics as the dominant driver of implied probabilities ahead of the general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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