Lula's commanding 95.5% implied probability to finish first in Paraíba's October 4 first round reflects the state's consistent historical preference for the Workers' Party candidate, reinforced by recent local alignments. Chamber of Deputies Speaker Hugo Motta, a Paraíba native, publicly endorsed Lula's reelection bid in mid-August, citing alignment on state legislative priorities. National polls through late August show Lula leading declared challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro by 5–8 points in first-round scenarios, with minor candidates polling in single digits. Traders price in limited upside for alternatives given Paraíba's 33-point margin for Lula in prior cycles and the absence of major regional disruptions. Shifts could occur from unexpected turnout surges among opposition voters or late campaign events, though structural advantages favor the incumbent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 95.5%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Hertz Dias <1%
Renan Santos <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
96%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Hertz Dias
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Samara
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Zema
1%
Clariana Barao
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
1%
Pablo Marçal
1%
Lula 95.5%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Hertz Dias <1%
Renan Santos <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$4,044 Vol.
96%
Edmilson Costa
$431 Vol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$483 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$431 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$431 Vol.
1%
Samara
$431 Vol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$431 Vol.
1%
Zema
$431 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$431 Vol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$493 Vol.
1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$452 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$431 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$431 Vol.
1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's commanding 95.5% implied probability to finish first in Paraíba's October 4 first round reflects the state's consistent historical preference for the Workers' Party candidate, reinforced by recent local alignments. Chamber of Deputies Speaker Hugo Motta, a Paraíba native, publicly endorsed Lula's reelection bid in mid-August, citing alignment on state legislative priorities. National polls through late August show Lula leading declared challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro by 5–8 points in first-round scenarios, with minor candidates polling in single digits. Traders price in limited upside for alternatives given Paraíba's 33-point margin for Lula in prior cycles and the absence of major regional disruptions. Shifts could occur from unexpected turnout surges among opposition voters or late campaign events, though structural advantages favor the incumbent.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ET
Volume
$9,352End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's commanding 95.5% implied probability to finish first in Paraíba's October 4 first round reflects the state's consistent historical preference for the Workers' Party candidate, reinforced by recent local alignments. Chamber of Deputies Speaker Hugo Motta, a Paraíba native, publicly endorsed Lula's reelection bid in mid-August, citing alignment on state legislative priorities. National polls through late August show Lula leading declared challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro by 5–8 points in first-round scenarios, with minor candidates polling in single digits. Traders price in limited upside for alternatives given Paraíba's 33-point margin for Lula in prior cycles and the absence of major regional disruptions. Shifts could occur from unexpected turnout surges among opposition voters or late campaign events, though structural advantages favor the incumbent.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$9,352End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula's commanding 95.5% implied probability to finish first in Paraíba's October 4 first round reflects the state's consistent historical preference for the Workers' Party candidate, reinforced by recent local alignments. Chamber of Deputies Speaker Hugo Motta, a Paraíba native, publicly endorsed Lula's reelection bid in mid-August, citing alignment on state legislative priorities. National polls through late August show Lula leading declared challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro by 5–8 points in first-round scenarios, with minor candidates polling in single digits. Traders price in limited upside for alternatives given Paraíba's 33-point margin for Lula in prior cycles and the absence of major regional disruptions. Shifts could occur from unexpected turnout surges among opposition voters or late campaign events, though structural advantages favor the incumbent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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