Sílvia Cristina (PP) holds the highest implied probability for second place in Rondônia’s October 4 Senate election, where voters select two candidates, amid a field of roughly ten contenders. Recent July polls, including Phoenix and Real Time Big Data, show Dr. Fernando Máximo (PL) leading first preferences while Sílvia, Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid (PL), Mariana Carvalho (Republicanos), and Acir Gurgacz (PDT) cluster closely for the remaining spot, with margins inside sampling error. Acir’s candidacy was confirmed after a court ruling cleared his registration, and Confúcio Moura’s withdrawal narrowed the veteran lane. Fragmented regional bases, overlapping PL candidacies, Sílvia’s coalition ties, and elevated undecided shares sustain the tight trader consensus. Further polling shifts, alliance formalizations, or campaign spending patterns ahead of the October vote could widen gaps among the top four.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRondônia Senate Election: 2nd Place
Rondônia Senate Election: 2nd Place
Sílvia Cristina 42%
Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid 14%
Dr. Fernando Máximo 7.2%
Acir Gurgacz 6.0%
$11,961 Vol.
$11,961 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Sílvia Cristina
42%
Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid
14%
Dr. Fernando Máximo
16%
Acir Gurgacz
6%
Luciana Oliveira
4%
Aires Mota
3%
Mariana Carvalho
2%
Neidinha
1%
Engenheiro Thulio
1%
Luis Fernando
1%
Sílvia Cristina 42%
Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid 14%
Dr. Fernando Máximo 7.2%
Acir Gurgacz 6.0%
$11,961 Vol.
$11,961 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Sílvia Cristina
$6,592 Vol.
42%
Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid
$2,165 Vol.
14%
Dr. Fernando Máximo
$327 Vol.
16%
Acir Gurgacz
$743 Vol.
6%
Luciana Oliveira
$239 Vol.
4%
Aires Mota
$501 Vol.
3%
Mariana Carvalho
$170 Vol.
2%
Neidinha
$211 Vol.
1%
Engenheiro Thulio
$752 Vol.
1%
Luis Fernando
$262 Vol.
1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rondônia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Sílvia Cristina (PP) holds the highest implied probability for second place in Rondônia’s October 4 Senate election, where voters select two candidates, amid a field of roughly ten contenders. Recent July polls, including Phoenix and Real Time Big Data, show Dr. Fernando Máximo (PL) leading first preferences while Sílvia, Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid (PL), Mariana Carvalho (Republicanos), and Acir Gurgacz (PDT) cluster closely for the remaining spot, with margins inside sampling error. Acir’s candidacy was confirmed after a court ruling cleared his registration, and Confúcio Moura’s withdrawal narrowed the veteran lane. Fragmented regional bases, overlapping PL candidacies, Sílvia’s coalition ties, and elevated undecided shares sustain the tight trader consensus. Further polling shifts, alliance formalizations, or campaign spending patterns ahead of the October vote could widen gaps among the top four.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rondônia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:14 AM ET
Volume
$11,961End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rondônia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Sílvia Cristina (PP) holds the highest implied probability for second place in Rondônia’s October 4 Senate election, where voters select two candidates, amid a field of roughly ten contenders. Recent July polls, including Phoenix and Real Time Big Data, show Dr. Fernando Máximo (PL) leading first preferences while Sílvia, Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid (PL), Mariana Carvalho (Republicanos), and Acir Gurgacz (PDT) cluster closely for the remaining spot, with margins inside sampling error. Acir’s candidacy was confirmed after a court ruling cleared his registration, and Confúcio Moura’s withdrawal narrowed the veteran lane. Fragmented regional bases, overlapping PL candidacies, Sílvia’s coalition ties, and elevated undecided shares sustain the tight trader consensus. Further polling shifts, alliance formalizations, or campaign spending patterns ahead of the October vote could widen gaps among the top four.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rondônia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$11,961End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Sílvia Cristina (PP) holds the highest implied probability for second place in Rondônia’s October 4 Senate election, where voters select two candidates, amid a field of roughly ten contenders. Recent July polls, including Phoenix and Real Time Big Data, show Dr. Fernando Máximo (PL) leading first preferences while Sílvia, Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid (PL), Mariana Carvalho (Republicanos), and Acir Gurgacz (PDT) cluster closely for the remaining spot, with margins inside sampling error. Acir’s candidacy was confirmed after a court ruling cleared his registration, and Confúcio Moura’s withdrawal narrowed the veteran lane. Fragmented regional bases, overlapping PL candidacies, Sílvia’s coalition ties, and elevated undecided shares sustain the tight trader consensus. Further polling shifts, alliance formalizations, or campaign spending patterns ahead of the October vote could widen gaps among the top four.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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