Uba Sani’s incumbency as APC governor, his May 2026 party primary endorsement, and July 2026 selection of Christian running mate Jerry Adams from Southern Kaduna to restore a Muslim-Christian ticket have anchored trader pricing near 55 percent by signaling efforts at broader inclusion and stability ahead of the February 2027 vote. Multiple opposition contenders, including Mohammed Ashiru Isa of the ADC, Shehu Bawa of the PDP who secured his nomination in late August, Auwal Tafoki, and others, continue assembling structures and running mates amid party disputes and local government results favoring the APC. Kaduna’s history of competitive races, requirements for cross-regional and religious coalitions, and remaining primary timelines sustain a tight field where further candidate consolidation or security developments could shift implied probabilities before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUba Sani 55%
Mohammed Ashiru Isa 16%
Aminu Abdulfatah 12%
Shehu Bawa 11%
NEW
NEW
Feb 6, 2027
Uba Sani
55%
Mohammed Ashiru Isa
16%
Aminu Abdulfatah
12%
Shehu Bawa
11%
Auwal Tafoki
11%
Danjuma Laah
5%
Uba Sani 55%
Mohammed Ashiru Isa 16%
Aminu Abdulfatah 12%
Shehu Bawa 11%
NEW
NEW
Feb 6, 2027
Uba Sani
$1,024 Vol.
55%
Mohammed Ashiru Isa
$0 Vol.
16%
Aminu Abdulfatah
$0 Vol.
12%
Shehu Bawa
$0 Vol.
11%
Auwal Tafoki
$25 Vol.
11%
Danjuma Laah
$205 Vol.
5%
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Kaduna State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Kaduna State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.Uba Sani’s incumbency as APC governor, his May 2026 party primary endorsement, and July 2026 selection of Christian running mate Jerry Adams from Southern Kaduna to restore a Muslim-Christian ticket have anchored trader pricing near 55 percent by signaling efforts at broader inclusion and stability ahead of the February 2027 vote. Multiple opposition contenders, including Mohammed Ashiru Isa of the ADC, Shehu Bawa of the PDP who secured his nomination in late August, Auwal Tafoki, and others, continue assembling structures and running mates amid party disputes and local government results favoring the APC. Kaduna’s history of competitive races, requirements for cross-regional and religious coalitions, and remaining primary timelines sustain a tight field where further candidate consolidation or security developments could shift implied probabilities before election day.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Kaduna State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Kaduna State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Kaduna State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 4:12 PM ET
Volume
$1,254End Date
Feb 6, 2027Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Kaduna State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Kaduna State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.Uba Sani’s incumbency as APC governor, his May 2026 party primary endorsement, and July 2026 selection of Christian running mate Jerry Adams from Southern Kaduna to restore a Muslim-Christian ticket have anchored trader pricing near 55 percent by signaling efforts at broader inclusion and stability ahead of the February 2027 vote. Multiple opposition contenders, including Mohammed Ashiru Isa of the ADC, Shehu Bawa of the PDP who secured his nomination in late August, Auwal Tafoki, and others, continue assembling structures and running mates amid party disputes and local government results favoring the APC. Kaduna’s history of competitive races, requirements for cross-regional and religious coalitions, and remaining primary timelines sustain a tight field where further candidate consolidation or security developments could shift implied probabilities before election day.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Kaduna State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Kaduna State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Kaduna State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.
Volume
$1,254End Date
Feb 6, 2027Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Uba Sani’s incumbency as APC governor, his May 2026 party primary endorsement, and July 2026 selection of Christian running mate Jerry Adams from Southern Kaduna to restore a Muslim-Christian ticket have anchored trader pricing near 55 percent by signaling efforts at broader inclusion and stability ahead of the February 2027 vote. Multiple opposition contenders, including Mohammed Ashiru Isa of the ADC, Shehu Bawa of the PDP who secured his nomination in late August, Auwal Tafoki, and others, continue assembling structures and running mates amid party disputes and local government results favoring the APC. Kaduna’s history of competitive races, requirements for cross-regional and religious coalitions, and remaining primary timelines sustain a tight field where further candidate consolidation or security developments could shift implied probabilities before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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