Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place

Leila do Vôlei 52%

Bia Kicis 22%

Erika Kokay 15%

Michelle Bolsonaro 7.5%

$22,398 Vol.

Oct 4, 2026

Leila do Vôlei

$4,654 Vol.

47%

Bia Kicis

$6,551 Vol.

22%

Erika Kokay

$2,326 Vol.

22%

Michelle Bolsonaro

$3,316 Vol.

David Horn

$1,739 Vol.

<1%

Avenir Rosa

$437 Vol.

<1%

Guto Felício dos Santos

$381 Vol.

<1%

Professor Guilherme Amorim

$878 Vol.

<1%

Tiago

$520 Vol.

<1%

Marley

$392 Vol.

<1%

Ronaldo Fonseca

$407 Vol.

<1%

Sebastião Coelho

$381 Vol.

<1%

Zanata

$417 Vol.

<1%

Leila do Vôlei 52%

Bia Kicis 22%

Erika Kokay 15%

Michelle Bolsonaro 7.5%

$22,398 Vol.

Oct 4, 2026

Leila do Vôlei

$4,654 Vol.

47%

Bia Kicis

$6,551 Vol.

22%

Erika Kokay

$2,326 Vol.

22%

Michelle Bolsonaro

$3,316 Vol.

David Horn

$1,739 Vol.

<1%

Avenir Rosa

$437 Vol.

<1%

Guto Felício dos Santos

$381 Vol.

<1%

Professor Guilherme Amorim

$878 Vol.

<1%

Tiago

$520 Vol.

<1%

Marley

$392 Vol.

<1%

Ronaldo Fonseca

$407 Vol.

<1%

Sebastião Coelho

$381 Vol.

<1%

Zanata

$417 Vol.

<1%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?

56%

Will Marina Silva win the second-most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?

31%

Will Capitão Alberto Neto win the second-most votes in the 2026 Amazonas Senate election?

47%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Leila do Vôlei" at 47%, followed by "Bia Kicis" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 47¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place" has generated $22.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place" is "Leila do Vôlei" at 47%, meaning the market assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Bia Kicis" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $22.4K traded on “Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 47¢ for "Leila do Vôlei" in the "Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 47% chance that "Leila do Vôlei" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 47¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 53¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Oct 4, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place

Federal District Senate Election: 2nd Place

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