Flavio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in Mato Grosso trader pricing for first place in the October 4 first-round vote because the agricultural state has consistently shown strong right-wing support in recent local polling, with the Liberal Party candidate leading by double digits over Lula and other contenders. His July 2026 party nomination, endorsement from Jair Bolsonaro, and campaign events in the state have reinforced this regional edge, where conservative voters and agribusiness interests align with PL messaging on security and economic policy. Other candidates, including Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema, remain far behind in state surveys. A major national scandal, sharp shift in rural turnout, or unexpected surge by a centrist alternative could still alter the outcome before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 95%
Lula 3.0%
Hertz Dias <1%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
95%
Lula
3%
Hertz Dias
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Clariana Barao
1%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
1%
Pablo Marçal
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
1%
Samara
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Zema
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 95%
Lula 3.0%
Hertz Dias <1%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$2,761 Vol.
95%
Lula
$1,328 Vol.
3%
Hertz Dias
$274 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$332 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$278 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$358 Vol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$373 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$327 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$248 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$291 Vol.
1%
Samara
$365 Vol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$284 Vol.
1%
Zema
$399 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in Mato Grosso trader pricing for first place in the October 4 first-round vote because the agricultural state has consistently shown strong right-wing support in recent local polling, with the Liberal Party candidate leading by double digits over Lula and other contenders. His July 2026 party nomination, endorsement from Jair Bolsonaro, and campaign events in the state have reinforced this regional edge, where conservative voters and agribusiness interests align with PL messaging on security and economic policy. Other candidates, including Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema, remain far behind in state surveys. A major national scandal, sharp shift in rural turnout, or unexpected surge by a centrist alternative could still alter the outcome before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ET
Volume
$7,617End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in Mato Grosso trader pricing for first place in the October 4 first-round vote because the agricultural state has consistently shown strong right-wing support in recent local polling, with the Liberal Party candidate leading by double digits over Lula and other contenders. His July 2026 party nomination, endorsement from Jair Bolsonaro, and campaign events in the state have reinforced this regional edge, where conservative voters and agribusiness interests align with PL messaging on security and economic policy. Other candidates, including Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema, remain far behind in state surveys. A major national scandal, sharp shift in rural turnout, or unexpected surge by a centrist alternative could still alter the outcome before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$7,617End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flavio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in Mato Grosso trader pricing for first place in the October 4 first-round vote because the agricultural state has consistently shown strong right-wing support in recent local polling, with the Liberal Party candidate leading by double digits over Lula and other contenders. His July 2026 party nomination, endorsement from Jair Bolsonaro, and campaign events in the state have reinforced this regional edge, where conservative voters and agribusiness interests align with PL messaging on security and economic policy. Other candidates, including Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema, remain far behind in state surveys. A major national scandal, sharp shift in rural turnout, or unexpected surge by a centrist alternative could still alter the outcome before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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