**Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign has adopted a deliberate strategy of limiting debate participation in the first round of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election to events that also feature President Lula.** With Lula confirmed absent from the Band debate scheduled for August 23—the first televised presidential confrontation—Flávio’s team has signaled he will also skip the event to avoid becoming the primary target of attacks from other right-leaning candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos. Multiple credible reports from the past week confirm this positioning, noting that Flávio’s advisers view early debates without the main rival as offering little upside and exposing him to concentrated criticism. Lula’s own absence reflects a parallel calculation to sidestep a multi-candidate format. While later debates, such as the September 14 consortium event, may include both frontrunners, the immediate catalyst and conditioning of Flávio’s participation on Lula’s presence underpin the market’s modest tilt toward “No” as the trader consensus on near-term behavior.