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icon for Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st Place
Politics·Brazil

Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st Place

icon for Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st Place
Politics·Brazil

Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st Place

Benedita da Silva 56%

Carlos Jordy 22%

Marcelo Crivella 6.4%

Marcos Dias 5.6%

Polymarket

$16,914 Vol.

Benedita da Silva 56%

Carlos Jordy 22%

Marcelo Crivella 6.4%

Marcos Dias 5.6%

Polymarket

$16,914 Vol.

icon for Benedita da Silva

Benedita da Silva

$6,862 Vol.

56%

icon for Carlos Jordy

Carlos Jordy

$2,624 Vol.

22%

icon for Marcelo Crivella

Marcelo Crivella

$377 Vol.

6%

icon for Marcos Dias

Marcos Dias

$404 Vol.

6%

icon for Carlos Portinho

Carlos Portinho

$1,554 Vol.

5%

icon for Pedro Paulo

Pedro Paulo

$891 Vol.

4%

icon for Monica Benicio

Monica Benicio

$393 Vol.

4%

icon for Paula Falcão

Paula Falcão

$340 Vol.

3%

icon for Ó Clemente

Ó Clemente

$840 Vol.

2%

icon for Vinicius Benevides

Vinicius Benevides

$375 Vol.

1%

icon for Luiz Eugenio

Luiz Eugenio

$444 Vol.

<1%

icon for Waguinho

Waguinho

$388 Vol.

<1%

icon for Helio Secco

Helio Secco

$340 Vol.

<1%

icon for André Monteiro

André Monteiro

$557 Vol.

<1%

icon for Luciano Mattos

Luciano Mattos

$192 Vol.

<1%

icon for Michelly Xavier

Michelly Xavier

$333 Vol.

<1%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent Datafolha polling from August 21 shows Benedita da Silva (PT) leading Senate intentions in Rio de Janeiro at 15%, ahead of a fragmented field where Carlos Jordy and Carlos Portinho (both PL) sit at 8% and several others, including Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos), Pedro Paulo (PSD), and Mônica Benício (PSOL), cluster at 6%. The state elects two senators, and vote splitting among right-leaning candidates plus 12% undecided and 23% blank/null responses have kept first-place probabilities tight in trader assessments. Earlier July surveys from Quaest and Real Time similarly positioned Benedita and Crivella ahead numerically. High undecided shares and the absence of major campaign shifts or endorsements in the past month sustain the current market consensus around her edge for first place while leaving room for late consolidation or turnout effects to alter positioning.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$16,914
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:09 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent Datafolha polling from August 21 shows Benedita da Silva (PT) leading Senate intentions in Rio de Janeiro at 15%, ahead of a fragmented field where Carlos Jordy and Carlos Portinho (both PL) sit at 8% and several others, including Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos), Pedro Paulo (PSD), and Mônica Benício (PSOL), cluster at 6%. The state elects two senators, and vote splitting among right-leaning candidates plus 12% undecided and 23% blank/null responses have kept first-place probabilities tight in trader assessments. Earlier July surveys from Quaest and Real Time similarly positioned Benedita and Crivella ahead numerically. High undecided shares and the absence of major campaign shifts or endorsements in the past month sustain the current market consensus around her edge for first place while leaving room for late consolidation or turnout effects to alter positioning.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$16,914
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:09 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 16 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Benedita da Silva" at 56%, followed by "Carlos Jordy" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 56¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st Place" has generated $16.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st Place," browse the 16 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st Place" is "Benedita da Silva" at 56%, meaning the market assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Carlos Jordy" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.