Lula's commanding 93% implied probability for first place in Pará's first-round vote reflects his established regional support as incumbent president, reinforced by consistent polling trends among northern voters and alignment with local priorities such as Amazon resource management and federal transfers. Traders appear to price in limited recent shifts from opposition figures, including low-single-digit odds for names like Flavio Bolsonaro and Ronaldo Caiado, amid standard campaign timelines leading into October 2026. Historical patterns of strong PT performance in the state further anchor the consensus. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include late surges by challengers through targeted regional messaging, turnout fluctuations among key demographics, or unexpected national developments affecting voter sentiment in the final weeks before the ballot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 93%
Flavio Bolsonaro 5.0%
Ronaldo Caiado 2.3%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%
$12,177 Vol.
$12,177 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
93%
Flavio Bolsonaro
5%
Ronaldo Caiado
2%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Zema
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Samara
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Lula 93%
Flavio Bolsonaro 5.0%
Ronaldo Caiado 2.3%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%
$12,177 Vol.
$12,177 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$6,593 Vol.
93%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$751 Vol.
5%
Ronaldo Caiado
$293 Vol.
2%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$513 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$443 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$385 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$454 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$519 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$404 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$515 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$405 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$396 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$505 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's commanding 93% implied probability for first place in Pará's first-round vote reflects his established regional support as incumbent president, reinforced by consistent polling trends among northern voters and alignment with local priorities such as Amazon resource management and federal transfers. Traders appear to price in limited recent shifts from opposition figures, including low-single-digit odds for names like Flavio Bolsonaro and Ronaldo Caiado, amid standard campaign timelines leading into October 2026. Historical patterns of strong PT performance in the state further anchor the consensus. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include late surges by challengers through targeted regional messaging, turnout fluctuations among key demographics, or unexpected national developments affecting voter sentiment in the final weeks before the ballot.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ET
Volume
$12,177End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's commanding 93% implied probability for first place in Pará's first-round vote reflects his established regional support as incumbent president, reinforced by consistent polling trends among northern voters and alignment with local priorities such as Amazon resource management and federal transfers. Traders appear to price in limited recent shifts from opposition figures, including low-single-digit odds for names like Flavio Bolsonaro and Ronaldo Caiado, amid standard campaign timelines leading into October 2026. Historical patterns of strong PT performance in the state further anchor the consensus. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include late surges by challengers through targeted regional messaging, turnout fluctuations among key demographics, or unexpected national developments affecting voter sentiment in the final weeks before the ballot.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$12,177End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula's commanding 93% implied probability for first place in Pará's first-round vote reflects his established regional support as incumbent president, reinforced by consistent polling trends among northern voters and alignment with local priorities such as Amazon resource management and federal transfers. Traders appear to price in limited recent shifts from opposition figures, including low-single-digit odds for names like Flavio Bolsonaro and Ronaldo Caiado, amid standard campaign timelines leading into October 2026. Historical patterns of strong PT performance in the state further anchor the consensus. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include late surges by challengers through targeted regional messaging, turnout fluctuations among key demographics, or unexpected national developments affecting voter sentiment in the final weeks before the ballot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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