Lula holds a narrow edge in Tocantins first-round trader pricing amid national polling that shows him leading Flávio Bolsonaro by 5–13 points, though the gap has narrowed since July as the official campaign period began. Incumbent Lula benefits from established PT support in northern states and recent nomination momentum, while Bolsonaro draws consolidated right-wing backing as the PL candidate and son of the former president. Multiple other contenders, including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury, split opposition and centrist votes without threatening the top two. Older Tocantins-specific surveys indicated technical ties, and Lula’s approval hovers near 47% with 50% disapproval nationally. Upcoming debates and final-week turnout patterns in the state could widen or close the slim probability margin reflected in current prices.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 52%
Flavio Bolsonaro 47%
Pablo Marçal <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$13,437 Vol.
$13,437 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
52%
Flavio Bolsonaro
47%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Zema
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Lula 52%
Flavio Bolsonaro 47%
Pablo Marçal <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$13,437 Vol.
$13,437 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$3,689 Vol.
52%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$3,721 Vol.
47%
Pablo Marçal
$1,158 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$542 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$575 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$342 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$406 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$438 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$601 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$448 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$558 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$432 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$527 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds a narrow edge in Tocantins first-round trader pricing amid national polling that shows him leading Flávio Bolsonaro by 5–13 points, though the gap has narrowed since July as the official campaign period began. Incumbent Lula benefits from established PT support in northern states and recent nomination momentum, while Bolsonaro draws consolidated right-wing backing as the PL candidate and son of the former president. Multiple other contenders, including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury, split opposition and centrist votes without threatening the top two. Older Tocantins-specific surveys indicated technical ties, and Lula’s approval hovers near 47% with 50% disapproval nationally. Upcoming debates and final-week turnout patterns in the state could widen or close the slim probability margin reflected in current prices.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Volume
$13,437End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds a narrow edge in Tocantins first-round trader pricing amid national polling that shows him leading Flávio Bolsonaro by 5–13 points, though the gap has narrowed since July as the official campaign period began. Incumbent Lula benefits from established PT support in northern states and recent nomination momentum, while Bolsonaro draws consolidated right-wing backing as the PL candidate and son of the former president. Multiple other contenders, including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury, split opposition and centrist votes without threatening the top two. Older Tocantins-specific surveys indicated technical ties, and Lula’s approval hovers near 47% with 50% disapproval nationally. Upcoming debates and final-week turnout patterns in the state could widen or close the slim probability margin reflected in current prices.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$13,437End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula holds a narrow edge in Tocantins first-round trader pricing amid national polling that shows him leading Flávio Bolsonaro by 5–13 points, though the gap has narrowed since July as the official campaign period began. Incumbent Lula benefits from established PT support in northern states and recent nomination momentum, while Bolsonaro draws consolidated right-wing backing as the PL candidate and son of the former president. Multiple other contenders, including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury, split opposition and centrist votes without threatening the top two. Older Tocantins-specific surveys indicated technical ties, and Lula’s approval hovers near 47% with 50% disapproval nationally. Upcoming debates and final-week turnout patterns in the state could widen or close the slim probability margin reflected in current prices.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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