Carlos Bolsonaro (PL) holds a narrow edge in the Santa Catarina Senate race for first place, supported by the party's statewide organization, Governor Jorginho Mello's alignment, and consistent leads in recent Neokemp and AtlasIntel polling that place him ahead or tied with running mate Carol de Toni. The contest remains tightly balanced because both PL candidates draw from the same voter base, creating split-ticket dynamics that keep their first-place probabilities close while Esperidião Amin (PP) and others trail further behind. Primary factors include the party's dual candidacy strategy, regional polling trends favoring PL over PT and PSOL challengers, and the October 2026 election timeline, where late shifts in turnout or endorsements could separate the top contenders without altering the overall two-seat outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSanta Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place
Santa Catarina Senate Election: 1st Place
Carlos Bolsonaro 61%
Carol de Toni 35%
Esperidião Amin 3.7%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado 2.0%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Carlos Bolsonaro
54%
Carol de Toni
27%
Esperidião Amin
4%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
2%
Joaninha de Oliveira
<1%
Lunelli
<1%
Marcos Dorval
<1%
Marlene Soccas
<1%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
<1%
Carol
<1%
Décio Lima
<1%
Jeferson da Rocha
<1%
Carlos Bolsonaro 61%
Carol de Toni 35%
Esperidião Amin 3.7%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado 2.0%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Carlos Bolsonaro
$1,032 Vol.
54%
Carol de Toni
$1,405 Vol.
27%
Esperidião Amin
$437 Vol.
4%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
$693 Vol.
2%
Joaninha de Oliveira
$367 Vol.
<1%
Lunelli
$383 Vol.
<1%
Marcos Dorval
$196 Vol.
<1%
Marlene Soccas
$337 Vol.
<1%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
$248 Vol.
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
$342 Vol.
<1%
Carol
$390 Vol.
<1%
Décio Lima
$396 Vol.
<1%
Jeferson da Rocha
$308 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Carlos Bolsonaro (PL) holds a narrow edge in the Santa Catarina Senate race for first place, supported by the party's statewide organization, Governor Jorginho Mello's alignment, and consistent leads in recent Neokemp and AtlasIntel polling that place him ahead or tied with running mate Carol de Toni. The contest remains tightly balanced because both PL candidates draw from the same voter base, creating split-ticket dynamics that keep their first-place probabilities close while Esperidião Amin (PP) and others trail further behind. Primary factors include the party's dual candidacy strategy, regional polling trends favoring PL over PT and PSOL challengers, and the October 2026 election timeline, where late shifts in turnout or endorsements could separate the top contenders without altering the overall two-seat outcome.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Volume
$6,536End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Carlos Bolsonaro (PL) holds a narrow edge in the Santa Catarina Senate race for first place, supported by the party's statewide organization, Governor Jorginho Mello's alignment, and consistent leads in recent Neokemp and AtlasIntel polling that place him ahead or tied with running mate Carol de Toni. The contest remains tightly balanced because both PL candidates draw from the same voter base, creating split-ticket dynamics that keep their first-place probabilities close while Esperidião Amin (PP) and others trail further behind. Primary factors include the party's dual candidacy strategy, regional polling trends favoring PL over PT and PSOL challengers, and the October 2026 election timeline, where late shifts in turnout or endorsements could separate the top contenders without altering the overall two-seat outcome.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$6,536End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Carlos Bolsonaro (PL) holds a narrow edge in the Santa Catarina Senate race for first place, supported by the party's statewide organization, Governor Jorginho Mello's alignment, and consistent leads in recent Neokemp and AtlasIntel polling that place him ahead or tied with running mate Carol de Toni. The contest remains tightly balanced because both PL candidates draw from the same voter base, creating split-ticket dynamics that keep their first-place probabilities close while Esperidião Amin (PP) and others trail further behind. Primary factors include the party's dual candidacy strategy, regional polling trends favoring PL over PT and PSOL challengers, and the October 2026 election timeline, where late shifts in turnout or endorsements could separate the top contenders without altering the overall two-seat outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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