Recent polling and party conventions show the race for second place in Santa Catarina’s October 4 Senate contest remains tight among Carol de Toni (PL), Carlos Bolsonaro (PL), and Esperidião Amin (PP). The PL launched both de Toni, a sitting federal deputy with strong regional roots, and Bolsonaro, who relocated from Rio de Janeiro, on the same ticket in early August to support Governor Jorginho Mello’s re-election bid. This dual-candidacy strategy, combined with each voter’s two votes, has kept the three frontrunners statistically tied in surveys conducted through mid-August, with limited separation driven by name recognition, conservative voter consolidation, and positioning ahead of the first-round vote count. Minor candidates trail far behind, while the outcome hinges on turnout patterns and any late shifts in second-preference voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSanta Catarina Senate Election: 2nd Place
Santa Catarina Senate Election: 2nd Place
Carol de Toni 39%
Carlos Bolsonaro 32%
Esperidião Amin 13%
Jeferson da Rocha 3.6%
$18,191 Vol.
$18,191 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Carol de Toni
39%
Carlos Bolsonaro
32%
Esperidião Amin
13%
Jeferson da Rocha
4%
Lunelli
1%
Carol
<1%
Décio Lima
<1%
Joaninha de Oliveira
<1%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
<1%
Marcos Dorval
<1%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
<1%
Marlene Soccas
<1%
Carol de Toni 39%
Carlos Bolsonaro 32%
Esperidião Amin 13%
Jeferson da Rocha 3.6%
$18,191 Vol.
$18,191 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Carol de Toni
$6,523 Vol.
39%
Carlos Bolsonaro
$4,450 Vol.
32%
Esperidião Amin
$1,730 Vol.
13%
Jeferson da Rocha
$764 Vol.
4%
Lunelli
$527 Vol.
1%
Carol
$459 Vol.
<1%
Décio Lima
$545 Vol.
<1%
Joaninha de Oliveira
$595 Vol.
<1%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
$549 Vol.
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
$547 Vol.
<1%
Marcos Dorval
$419 Vol.
<1%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
$534 Vol.
<1%
Marlene Soccas
$549 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling and party conventions show the race for second place in Santa Catarina’s October 4 Senate contest remains tight among Carol de Toni (PL), Carlos Bolsonaro (PL), and Esperidião Amin (PP). The PL launched both de Toni, a sitting federal deputy with strong regional roots, and Bolsonaro, who relocated from Rio de Janeiro, on the same ticket in early August to support Governor Jorginho Mello’s re-election bid. This dual-candidacy strategy, combined with each voter’s two votes, has kept the three frontrunners statistically tied in surveys conducted through mid-August, with limited separation driven by name recognition, conservative voter consolidation, and positioning ahead of the first-round vote count. Minor candidates trail far behind, while the outcome hinges on turnout patterns and any late shifts in second-preference voting.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
Volume
$18,191End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling and party conventions show the race for second place in Santa Catarina’s October 4 Senate contest remains tight among Carol de Toni (PL), Carlos Bolsonaro (PL), and Esperidião Amin (PP). The PL launched both de Toni, a sitting federal deputy with strong regional roots, and Bolsonaro, who relocated from Rio de Janeiro, on the same ticket in early August to support Governor Jorginho Mello’s re-election bid. This dual-candidacy strategy, combined with each voter’s two votes, has kept the three frontrunners statistically tied in surveys conducted through mid-August, with limited separation driven by name recognition, conservative voter consolidation, and positioning ahead of the first-round vote count. Minor candidates trail far behind, while the outcome hinges on turnout patterns and any late shifts in second-preference voting.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$18,191End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling and party conventions show the race for second place in Santa Catarina’s October 4 Senate contest remains tight among Carol de Toni (PL), Carlos Bolsonaro (PL), and Esperidião Amin (PP). The PL launched both de Toni, a sitting federal deputy with strong regional roots, and Bolsonaro, who relocated from Rio de Janeiro, on the same ticket in early August to support Governor Jorginho Mello’s re-election bid. This dual-candidacy strategy, combined with each voter’s two votes, has kept the three frontrunners statistically tied in surveys conducted through mid-August, with limited separation driven by name recognition, conservative voter consolidation, and positioning ahead of the first-round vote count. Minor candidates trail far behind, while the outcome hinges on turnout patterns and any late shifts in second-preference voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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