Recent polling from Datafolha, released August 21 after candidate registrations closed, shows a technical tie among leading contenders for São Paulo’s two Senate seats, with Simone Tebet and Marina Silva each at 12%, André do Prado at 10%, Guilherme Derrite at 7%, and Ricardo Salles at 6%. High undecided voters (14%) and blank or null intentions (21%) reflect the fragmented field of over 15 registered candidates, including lower-polling names such as Geraldo Rufino and Soninha Francine. Alliances like the right-leaning ticket pairing Derrite and Prado, alongside independent or center-left bids, further split preferences. With the October 4 election still weeks away, limited name recognition and shifting coalitions sustain the close trader consensus reflected in current pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGuilherme Derrite 46%
Simone Tebet 29.3%
Marina Silva 22%
André do Prado 3.1%
$18,497 Vol.
$18,497 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Guilherme Derrite
46%
Simone Tebet
29%
Marina Silva
22%
André do Prado
3%
Salles
1%
Soninha Francine
<1%
Weller Gonçalves
<1%
William Teixeira
<1%
Maíra de Souza
<1%
Marcio Alves
<1%
Petter Maahs
<1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
<1%
Ednelson Cesaretti
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
<1%
Guilherme Derrite 46%
Simone Tebet 29.3%
Marina Silva 22%
André do Prado 3.1%
$18,497 Vol.
$18,497 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Guilherme Derrite
$5,875 Vol.
46%
Simone Tebet
$1,826 Vol.
29%
Marina Silva
$3,097 Vol.
22%
André do Prado
$1,578 Vol.
3%
Salles
$1,437 Vol.
1%
Soninha Francine
$474 Vol.
<1%
Weller Gonçalves
$383 Vol.
<1%
William Teixeira
$700 Vol.
<1%
Maíra de Souza
$368 Vol.
<1%
Marcio Alves
$552 Vol.
<1%
Petter Maahs
$405 Vol.
<1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
$613 Vol.
<1%
Ednelson Cesaretti
$737 Vol.
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
$452 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Datafolha, released August 21 after candidate registrations closed, shows a technical tie among leading contenders for São Paulo’s two Senate seats, with Simone Tebet and Marina Silva each at 12%, André do Prado at 10%, Guilherme Derrite at 7%, and Ricardo Salles at 6%. High undecided voters (14%) and blank or null intentions (21%) reflect the fragmented field of over 15 registered candidates, including lower-polling names such as Geraldo Rufino and Soninha Francine. Alliances like the right-leaning ticket pairing Derrite and Prado, alongside independent or center-left bids, further split preferences. With the October 4 election still weeks away, limited name recognition and shifting coalitions sustain the close trader consensus reflected in current pricing.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Volume
$18,497End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Datafolha, released August 21 after candidate registrations closed, shows a technical tie among leading contenders for São Paulo’s two Senate seats, with Simone Tebet and Marina Silva each at 12%, André do Prado at 10%, Guilherme Derrite at 7%, and Ricardo Salles at 6%. High undecided voters (14%) and blank or null intentions (21%) reflect the fragmented field of over 15 registered candidates, including lower-polling names such as Geraldo Rufino and Soninha Francine. Alliances like the right-leaning ticket pairing Derrite and Prado, alongside independent or center-left bids, further split preferences. With the October 4 election still weeks away, limited name recognition and shifting coalitions sustain the close trader consensus reflected in current pricing.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$18,497End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from Datafolha, released August 21 after candidate registrations closed, shows a technical tie among leading contenders for São Paulo’s two Senate seats, with Simone Tebet and Marina Silva each at 12%, André do Prado at 10%, Guilherme Derrite at 7%, and Ricardo Salles at 6%. High undecided voters (14%) and blank or null intentions (21%) reflect the fragmented field of over 15 registered candidates, including lower-polling names such as Geraldo Rufino and Soninha Francine. Alliances like the right-leaning ticket pairing Derrite and Prado, alongside independent or center-left bids, further split preferences. With the October 4 election still weeks away, limited name recognition and shifting coalitions sustain the close trader consensus reflected in current pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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