Helder Barbalho (MDB) holds an 86.5% implied probability for first place in the Pará Senate race due to consistent polling leads of 21-25% in July and August surveys from Quaest/Genial and Atlas, far ahead of rivals such as Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) at 14-18% and Zequinha Marinho (Podemos) at 7-15%. His position stems from high statewide recognition as the term-limited former governor who resigned in 2026 to run, combined with MDB family influence, Lula-aligned coalitions, and broad party support for one of the two available seats. The fragmented field for second place, high undecided shares near 25-30%, and the dual-vote system reinforce trader consensus on his frontrunner status ahead of the October 4 election, with limited recent shifts in the data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHelder 86%
Gizelle Freitas 4.5%
Delegado Éder Mauro 4.4%
Edlaine Rodrigues 3.5%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Helder
86%
Gizelle Freitas
5%
Delegado Éder Mauro
4%
Edlaine Rodrigues
3%
Celso Sabino
1%
Zequinha Marinho
1%
Conti
1%
Breno Guimarães
1%
Willem da Silva
1%
Fernanda Lopes
<1%
Chicão
<1%
Helder 86%
Gizelle Freitas 4.5%
Delegado Éder Mauro 4.4%
Edlaine Rodrigues 3.5%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Helder
$5,922 Vol.
86%
Gizelle Freitas
$330 Vol.
5%
Delegado Éder Mauro
$403 Vol.
4%
Edlaine Rodrigues
$349 Vol.
3%
Celso Sabino
$287 Vol.
1%
Zequinha Marinho
$287 Vol.
1%
Conti
$413 Vol.
1%
Breno Guimarães
$342 Vol.
1%
Willem da Silva
$339 Vol.
1%
Fernanda Lopes
$327 Vol.
<1%
Chicão
$286 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Helder Barbalho (MDB) holds an 86.5% implied probability for first place in the Pará Senate race due to consistent polling leads of 21-25% in July and August surveys from Quaest/Genial and Atlas, far ahead of rivals such as Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) at 14-18% and Zequinha Marinho (Podemos) at 7-15%. His position stems from high statewide recognition as the term-limited former governor who resigned in 2026 to run, combined with MDB family influence, Lula-aligned coalitions, and broad party support for one of the two available seats. The fragmented field for second place, high undecided shares near 25-30%, and the dual-vote system reinforce trader consensus on his frontrunner status ahead of the October 4 election, with limited recent shifts in the data.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Volume
$9,286End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Helder Barbalho (MDB) holds an 86.5% implied probability for first place in the Pará Senate race due to consistent polling leads of 21-25% in July and August surveys from Quaest/Genial and Atlas, far ahead of rivals such as Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) at 14-18% and Zequinha Marinho (Podemos) at 7-15%. His position stems from high statewide recognition as the term-limited former governor who resigned in 2026 to run, combined with MDB family influence, Lula-aligned coalitions, and broad party support for one of the two available seats. The fragmented field for second place, high undecided shares near 25-30%, and the dual-vote system reinforce trader consensus on his frontrunner status ahead of the October 4 election, with limited recent shifts in the data.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$9,286End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Helder Barbalho (MDB) holds an 86.5% implied probability for first place in the Pará Senate race due to consistent polling leads of 21-25% in July and August surveys from Quaest/Genial and Atlas, far ahead of rivals such as Delegado Éder Mauro (PL) at 14-18% and Zequinha Marinho (Podemos) at 7-15%. His position stems from high statewide recognition as the term-limited former governor who resigned in 2026 to run, combined with MDB family influence, Lula-aligned coalitions, and broad party support for one of the two available seats. The fragmented field for second place, high undecided shares near 25-30%, and the dual-vote system reinforce trader consensus on his frontrunner status ahead of the October 4 election, with limited recent shifts in the data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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