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Politics·Brazil

Mato Grosso do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place

icon for Mato Grosso do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place
Politics·Brazil

Mato Grosso do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place

Reinaldo Azambuja 76%

Capitão Contar 15%

Vander Loubet 7%

Roberto Oshiro 5.2%

Polymarket
NEW

Reinaldo Azambuja 76%

Capitão Contar 15%

Vander Loubet 7%

Roberto Oshiro 5.2%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Reinaldo Azambuja

Reinaldo Azambuja

$3,657 Vol.

76%

icon for Capitão Contar

Capitão Contar

$87 Vol.

15%

icon for Vander Loubet

Vander Loubet

$53 Vol.

7%

icon for Roberto Oshiro

Roberto Oshiro

$124 Vol.

5%

icon for Soraya

Soraya

$53 Vol.

5%

icon for Valter da Comagran

Valter da Comagran

$122 Vol.

4%

icon for Valderi Garcia

Valderi Garcia

$53 Vol.

4%

icon for Daniel Junior

Daniel Junior

$48 Vol.

4%

icon for Beto do Movimento

Beto do Movimento

$53 Vol.

3%

icon for Luiz Lemes

Luiz Lemes

$74 Vol.

3%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) leads trader sentiment in the Mato Grosso do Sul Senate race for first place due to consistent polling advantages and structural advantages as former governor. August 2026 surveys from Real Time Big Data and Ranking Brasil Inteligência place him at 30-38% consolidated voting intentions for the state's two Senate seats, well ahead of Capitão Contar (PL) at 17-19% and trailing candidates including Vander Loubet (PT), Soraya Thronicke (PSB), and others. Azambuja's recent affiliation switch to PL, his inclusion in the broad "Fazendo o Futuro Acontecer" coalition backing Governor Eduardo Riedel's re-election, and high statewide name recognition from his 2015-2022 tenure underpin the 75.5% implied probability. Ten candidates are registered with the TSE for the October 4, 2026 vote, but late-campaign shifts or turnout variations among right-leaning voters remain the primary variables that could alter positioning before election day.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$4,324
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) leads trader sentiment in the Mato Grosso do Sul Senate race for first place due to consistent polling advantages and structural advantages as former governor. August 2026 surveys from Real Time Big Data and Ranking Brasil Inteligência place him at 30-38% consolidated voting intentions for the state's two Senate seats, well ahead of Capitão Contar (PL) at 17-19% and trailing candidates including Vander Loubet (PT), Soraya Thronicke (PSB), and others. Azambuja's recent affiliation switch to PL, his inclusion in the broad "Fazendo o Futuro Acontecer" coalition backing Governor Eduardo Riedel's re-election, and high statewide name recognition from his 2015-2022 tenure underpin the 75.5% implied probability. Ten candidates are registered with the TSE for the October 4, 2026 vote, but late-campaign shifts or turnout variations among right-leaning voters remain the primary variables that could alter positioning before election day.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$4,324
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Mato Grosso do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Reinaldo Azambuja" at 76%, followed by "Capitão Contar" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 76¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 76% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Mato Grosso do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Mato Grosso do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Mato Grosso do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place" is "Reinaldo Azambuja" at 76%, meaning the market assigns a 76% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Capitão Contar" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Mato Grosso do Sul Senate Election: 1st Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.