The Trump administration’s maximum-pressure campaign against Cuba, launched after the January 2026 capture of Nicolás Maduro, centers on an energy embargo, tariffs targeting third-country oil suppliers, executive orders declaring a national emergency, and sanctions on Cuban entities. These measures have produced acute fuel shortages, blackouts, and protests on the island. Military signaling has included deployment of the USS Nimitz carrier strike group, increased surveillance overflights, Marine rotations in the Caribbean, and SOUTHCOM planning that examined options such as 101st Airborne air assaults and strikes on drone threats linked to Russia and Iran. Public statements from President Trump have mixed regime-change rhetoric with references to negotiations and conditional aid, while Pentagon officials stress that reviewed contingencies do not reflect an active decision to act. The concurrent U.S.-Iran conflict continues to shape available force posture and timing considerations for any escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS military action against Cuba by...?
US military action against Cuba by...?
$7,322,193 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
19%
$7,322,193 Vol.
December 31
$5,143,088 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.The Trump administration’s maximum-pressure campaign against Cuba, launched after the January 2026 capture of Nicolás Maduro, centers on an energy embargo, tariffs targeting third-country oil suppliers, executive orders declaring a national emergency, and sanctions on Cuban entities. These measures have produced acute fuel shortages, blackouts, and protests on the island. Military signaling has included deployment of the USS Nimitz carrier strike group, increased surveillance overflights, Marine rotations in the Caribbean, and SOUTHCOM planning that examined options such as 101st Airborne air assaults and strikes on drone threats linked to Russia and Iran. Public statements from President Trump have mixed regime-change rhetoric with references to negotiations and conditional aid, while Pentagon officials stress that reviewed contingencies do not reflect an active decision to act. The concurrent U.S.-Iran conflict continues to shape available force posture and timing considerations for any escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Volume
$7,322,193End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.The Trump administration’s maximum-pressure campaign against Cuba, launched after the January 2026 capture of Nicolás Maduro, centers on an energy embargo, tariffs targeting third-country oil suppliers, executive orders declaring a national emergency, and sanctions on Cuban entities. These measures have produced acute fuel shortages, blackouts, and protests on the island. Military signaling has included deployment of the USS Nimitz carrier strike group, increased surveillance overflights, Marine rotations in the Caribbean, and SOUTHCOM planning that examined options such as 101st Airborne air assaults and strikes on drone threats linked to Russia and Iran. Public statements from President Trump have mixed regime-change rhetoric with references to negotiations and conditional aid, while Pentagon officials stress that reviewed contingencies do not reflect an active decision to act. The concurrent U.S.-Iran conflict continues to shape available force posture and timing considerations for any escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$7,322,193End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration’s maximum-pressure campaign against Cuba, launched after the January 2026 capture of Nicolás Maduro, centers on an energy embargo, tariffs targeting third-country oil suppliers, executive orders declaring a national emergency, and sanctions on Cuban entities. These measures have produced acute fuel shortages, blackouts, and protests on the island. Military signaling has included deployment of the USS Nimitz carrier strike group, increased surveillance overflights, Marine rotations in the Caribbean, and SOUTHCOM planning that examined options such as 101st Airborne air assaults and strikes on drone threats linked to Russia and Iran. Public statements from President Trump have mixed regime-change rhetoric with references to negotiations and conditional aid, while Pentagon officials stress that reviewed contingencies do not reflect an active decision to act. The concurrent U.S.-Iran conflict continues to shape available force posture and timing considerations for any escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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