**Traders assign an 88.5% probability to “No” because Iran has shown no willingness to permanently forgo uranium enrichment by the December 31 deadline.** Following U.S.-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 that damaged major sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding opened 60-day talks focused on down-blending roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium under IAEA supervision, sanctions relief, and navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran continues to assert its right to enrichment as a sovereign and scientific achievement, rejecting zero-enrichment demands while disputing immediate IAEA access to damaged facilities. Satellite imagery through mid-2026 shows ongoing fortification at underground sites like Pickaxe Mountain but no active enrichment, consistent with post-strike dormancy rather than dismantlement. Negotiations have produced no final accord committing Tehran to end enrichment activities, leaving the core dispute unresolved amid maximalist positions on both sides.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated12% chance
$1,646,234 Vol.
$1,646,234 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
12% chance
$1,646,234 Vol.
$1,646,234 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Traders assign an 88.5% probability to “No” because Iran has shown no willingness to permanently forgo uranium enrichment by the December 31 deadline.**
Following U.S.-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 that damaged major sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding opened 60-day talks focused on down-blending roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium under IAEA supervision, sanctions relief, and navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran continues to assert its right to enrichment as a sovereign and scientific achievement, rejecting zero-enrichment demands while disputing immediate IAEA access to damaged facilities. Satellite imagery through mid-2026 shows ongoing fortification at underground sites like Pickaxe Mountain but no active enrichment, consistent with post-strike dormancy rather than dismantlement. Negotiations have produced no final accord committing Tehran to end enrichment activities, leaving the core dispute unresolved amid maximalist positions on both sides.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volume
$1,646,234End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Traders assign an 88.5% probability to “No” because Iran has shown no willingness to permanently forgo uranium enrichment by the December 31 deadline.**
Following U.S.-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 that damaged major sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding opened 60-day talks focused on down-blending roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium under IAEA supervision, sanctions relief, and navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran continues to assert its right to enrichment as a sovereign and scientific achievement, rejecting zero-enrichment demands while disputing immediate IAEA access to damaged facilities. Satellite imagery through mid-2026 shows ongoing fortification at underground sites like Pickaxe Mountain but no active enrichment, consistent with post-strike dormancy rather than dismantlement. Negotiations have produced no final accord committing Tehran to end enrichment activities, leaving the core dispute unresolved amid maximalist positions on both sides.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,646,234End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign an 88.5% probability to “No” because Iran has shown no willingness to permanently forgo uranium enrichment by the December 31 deadline.** Following U.S.-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 that damaged major sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding opened 60-day talks focused on down-blending roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium under IAEA supervision, sanctions relief, and navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran continues to assert its right to enrichment as a sovereign and scientific achievement, rejecting zero-enrichment demands while disputing immediate IAEA access to damaged facilities. Satellite imagery through mid-2026 shows ongoing fortification at underground sites like Pickaxe Mountain but no active enrichment, consistent with post-strike dormancy rather than dismantlement. Negotiations have produced no final accord committing Tehran to end enrichment activities, leaving the core dispute unresolved amid maximalist positions on both sides.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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