Recent U.S.-Israeli military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan in 2025 and early 2026 inflicted substantial damage to enrichment facilities and related infrastructure, with IAEA assessments confirming restricted access and slower repair progress at key locations compared to missile sites. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran includes Tehran's reaffirmation against developing nuclear weapons, alongside halted enrichment activity reported by officials and limited IAEA verification continuity. These developments, combined with ongoing monitoring of remaining enriched uranium stockpiles, have shaped trader consensus reflected in the 95% implied probability against an Iranian nuclear device before 2027, though satellite indications of limited rebuilding efforts and potential future diplomatic shifts remain factors that could influence longer-term timelines.