The signed July 2026 U.S.-Saudi 123 agreement on civil nuclear cooperation now faces mandatory congressional review for 90 session days before it can take effect, creating a timeline that extends well beyond 2026 absent accelerated action. President Trump’s subsequent statements linking implementation to Saudi normalization with Israel via the Abraham Accords have added diplomatic friction, as Riyadh continues to condition such steps on progress toward Palestinian statehood. Nonproliferation concerns in Congress—centered on the absence of the IAEA Additional Protocol and “gold standard” restrictions on enrichment or reprocessing—further complicate passage, even with presidential support and a high bar for any disapproval resolution. These procedural and political factors underpin traders’ assessment that the agreement is unlikely to enter into force this year.