**Bipartisan congressional skepticism, stalled post-MOU negotiations, and the absence of any finalized agreement have anchored trader expectations against congressional approval of an Iran deal in 2026.** In June 2026, President Trump signed a preliminary U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian that initiated a 60-day window (ending around mid-August) for talks on Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz access. The MOU triggered bipartisan demands for review under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA), which requires presidential submission of nuclear-related agreements, supporting materials, a verification assessment, and certification, followed by a potential 30-day congressional review period for a disapproval resolution. Lawmakers from both parties, including Republican defense hawks, publicly insisted any final accord would need explicit congressional authorization rather than executive action alone. By late August 2026, the negotiation deadline passed without a comprehensive deal. Core disputes persisted over verifiable limits on enrichment, IAEA inspections, sanctions waivers, and Hormuz navigation, with reports of resumed tensions, mutual accusations of violations, and renewed U.S. sanctions pressure. No final text has been transmitted to Congress, and structural barriers—including INARA procedures, Senate confirmation dynamics, and cross-aisle concerns over enforcement—remain unaddressed. These verified developments explain the 92.5% “No” consensus, as traders price in the low likelihood of a completed, approvable agreement materializing and clearing legislative hurdles before year-end.