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icon for Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?
Politics·Trump

Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?

icon for Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?
Politics·Trump

Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

3% chance
Polymarket

$49,534 Vol.

3% chance
Polymarket

$49,534 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.Traders assign a 97.4% implied probability against President Trump’s removal via the 25th Amendment before 2027, driven by the amendment’s high procedural thresholds and current political alignments. Invocation requires the vice president plus a cabinet majority to certify incapacity, followed by congressional confirmation within strict timeframes. Unified Republican control of the executive branch and congressional majorities following the 2024 elections make internal consensus for such action improbable. Historical precedent shows the mechanism has never removed a sitting president. Late-breaking developments such as acute health events or an unprecedented cabinet revolt could theoretically alter trajectories, though both remain low-probability scenarios given present institutional dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.
Volume
$49,534
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 1:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.Traders assign a 97.4% implied probability against President Trump’s removal via the 25th Amendment before 2027, driven by the amendment’s high procedural thresholds and current political alignments. Invocation requires the vice president plus a cabinet majority to certify incapacity, followed by congressional confirmation within strict timeframes. Unified Republican control of the executive branch and congressional majorities following the 2024 elections make internal consensus for such action improbable. Historical precedent shows the mechanism has never removed a sitting president. Late-breaking developments such as acute health events or an unprecedented cabinet revolt could theoretically alter trajectories, though both remain low-probability scenarios given present institutional dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.
Volume
$49,534
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 1:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 3% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 3¢, the market collectively assigns a 3% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?" has generated $49.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?" is 3% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 3% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.