**Banxico's unanimous August 6 decision to hold the policy rate steady at 6.50%—following a May cut that ended the easing cycle—anchors the 93% market-implied probability of no change at the September 23–24 meeting.** July headline inflation eased to 3.12% year-over-year, the lowest reading since May 2020 and within the bank's 3% ±1% target band, while core inflation also moderated, though services prices remain elevated. Policymakers now project convergence to the 3% target only in Q4 2027, citing a more gradual disinflation path amid external risks and peso volatility. This data-driven pause, reinforced by forward guidance emphasizing an adequate stance for macroeconomic challenges, has solidified trader consensus around stability. A sharper inflation undershoot or significant peso depreciation could reopen cut discussions, but current trajectories and communications limit near-term scope for a 25 bp move.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 93%
25 bps decrease 6.4%
50+ bps decrease 1.1%
25 bps increase 1.0%
$43,874 Vol.
$43,874 Vol.
Sep 24, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
6%
No change
93%
25 bps increase
1%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 93%
25 bps decrease 6.4%
50+ bps decrease 1.1%
25 bps increase 1.0%
$43,874 Vol.
$43,874 Vol.
Sep 24, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$2,565 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$10,296 Vol.
6%
No change
$24,770 Vol.
93%
25 bps increase
$4,094 Vol.
1%
50+ bps increase
$2,149 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Banxico's unanimous August 6 decision to hold the policy rate steady at 6.50%—following a May cut that ended the easing cycle—anchors the 93% market-implied probability of no change at the September 23–24 meeting.** July headline inflation eased to 3.12% year-over-year, the lowest reading since May 2020 and within the bank's 3% ±1% target band, while core inflation also moderated, though services prices remain elevated. Policymakers now project convergence to the 3% target only in Q4 2027, citing a more gradual disinflation path amid external risks and peso volatility. This data-driven pause, reinforced by forward guidance emphasizing an adequate stance for macroeconomic challenges, has solidified trader consensus around stability. A sharper inflation undershoot or significant peso depreciation could reopen cut discussions, but current trajectories and communications limit near-term scope for a 25 bp move.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 23, 2026, 8:28 PM ET
Volume
$43,874End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 8:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Banxico's unanimous August 6 decision to hold the policy rate steady at 6.50%—following a May cut that ended the easing cycle—anchors the 93% market-implied probability of no change at the September 23–24 meeting.** July headline inflation eased to 3.12% year-over-year, the lowest reading since May 2020 and within the bank's 3% ±1% target band, while core inflation also moderated, though services prices remain elevated. Policymakers now project convergence to the 3% target only in Q4 2027, citing a more gradual disinflation path amid external risks and peso volatility. This data-driven pause, reinforced by forward guidance emphasizing an adequate stance for macroeconomic challenges, has solidified trader consensus around stability. A sharper inflation undershoot or significant peso depreciation could reopen cut discussions, but current trajectories and communications limit near-term scope for a 25 bp move.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 24, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$43,874End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Jun 23, 2026, 8:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Banxico's unanimous August 6 decision to hold the policy rate steady at 6.50%—following a May cut that ended the easing cycle—anchors the 93% market-implied probability of no change at the September 23–24 meeting.** July headline inflation eased to 3.12% year-over-year, the lowest reading since May 2020 and within the bank's 3% ±1% target band, while core inflation also moderated, though services prices remain elevated. Policymakers now project convergence to the 3% target only in Q4 2027, citing a more gradual disinflation path amid external risks and peso volatility. This data-driven pause, reinforced by forward guidance emphasizing an adequate stance for macroeconomic challenges, has solidified trader consensus around stability. A sharper inflation undershoot or significant peso depreciation could reopen cut discussions, but current trajectories and communications limit near-term scope for a 25 bp move.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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