Traders assign an 81% implied probability to no change at the Banco de la República’s September 30 meeting, reflecting the central bank’s data-dependent stance following its decision to hold the policy rate at 12% on July 31 amid July inflation of 6.03% year-over-year. Persistent price pressures, with core measures near 6% and end-2026 expectations rising to 6.6%, outweigh moderating monthly CPI prints and a stronger peso, while solid second-quarter growth and an 8% unemployment rate reinforce the case for maintaining the restrictive stance. The modest 8% and 7.4% odds on 50 bp or 25 bp hikes capture residual concerns over upside risks from food prices and external factors, yet the low probabilities on cuts underscore limited scope for easing until inflation shows clearer convergence toward the 3% target. Upcoming August CPI and any pre-meeting communications could further anchor these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 81%
25 bps increase 7.4%
50+ bps increase 7.1%
25 bps decrease 3.6%
$22,215 Vol.
$22,215 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
4%
No change
81%
25 bps increase
7%
50+ bps increase
7%
No change 81%
25 bps increase 7.4%
50+ bps increase 7.1%
25 bps decrease 3.6%
$22,215 Vol.
$22,215 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$1,044 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$804 Vol.
4%
No change
$9,417 Vol.
81%
25 bps increase
$9,125 Vol.
7%
50+ bps increase
$1,825 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Traders assign an 81% implied probability to no change at the Banco de la República’s September 30 meeting, reflecting the central bank’s data-dependent stance following its decision to hold the policy rate at 12% on July 31 amid July inflation of 6.03% year-over-year. Persistent price pressures, with core measures near 6% and end-2026 expectations rising to 6.6%, outweigh moderating monthly CPI prints and a stronger peso, while solid second-quarter growth and an 8% unemployment rate reinforce the case for maintaining the restrictive stance. The modest 8% and 7.4% odds on 50 bp or 25 bp hikes capture residual concerns over upside risks from food prices and external factors, yet the low probabilities on cuts underscore limited scope for easing until inflation shows clearer convergence toward the 3% target. Upcoming August CPI and any pre-meeting communications could further anchor these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$22,215End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Traders assign an 81% implied probability to no change at the Banco de la República’s September 30 meeting, reflecting the central bank’s data-dependent stance following its decision to hold the policy rate at 12% on July 31 amid July inflation of 6.03% year-over-year. Persistent price pressures, with core measures near 6% and end-2026 expectations rising to 6.6%, outweigh moderating monthly CPI prints and a stronger peso, while solid second-quarter growth and an 8% unemployment rate reinforce the case for maintaining the restrictive stance. The modest 8% and 7.4% odds on 50 bp or 25 bp hikes capture residual concerns over upside risks from food prices and external factors, yet the low probabilities on cuts underscore limited scope for easing until inflation shows clearer convergence toward the 3% target. Upcoming August CPI and any pre-meeting communications could further anchor these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$22,215End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign an 81% implied probability to no change at the Banco de la República’s September 30 meeting, reflecting the central bank’s data-dependent stance following its decision to hold the policy rate at 12% on July 31 amid July inflation of 6.03% year-over-year. Persistent price pressures, with core measures near 6% and end-2026 expectations rising to 6.6%, outweigh moderating monthly CPI prints and a stronger peso, while solid second-quarter growth and an 8% unemployment rate reinforce the case for maintaining the restrictive stance. The modest 8% and 7.4% odds on 50 bp or 25 bp hikes capture residual concerns over upside risks from food prices and external factors, yet the low probabilities on cuts underscore limited scope for easing until inflation shows clearer convergence toward the 3% target. Upcoming August CPI and any pre-meeting communications could further anchor these market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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