**Resilient U.S. economic expansion and a stable labor market underpin the 70.5% market-implied probability of no recession by end-2027.** Real GDP grew at a 1.5% annualized pace in Q2 2026 after 2.1% in Q1, supported by business investment in AI and technology alongside consumer spending. The unemployment rate held near 4.1-4.3% through July 2026 with mixed but not sharply deteriorating payrolls, while leading indicators like the Conference Board LEI turned positive. Elevated inflation near 3.4% CPI—driven by prior energy shocks—has prompted Fed officials to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% with some dissent favoring hikes, yet baseline forecasts from S&P Global, U.S. Bank, and others project 2.0-2.1% annual GDP growth through 2027 without contraction. Key near-term catalysts include September FOMC deliberations, August employment and CPI releases, and any escalation in Middle East or trade tensions that could alter the growth-inflation balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated30% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2027
30% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product**Resilient U.S. economic expansion and a stable labor market underpin the 70.5% market-implied probability of no recession by end-2027.** Real GDP grew at a 1.5% annualized pace in Q2 2026 after 2.1% in Q1, supported by business investment in AI and technology alongside consumer spending. The unemployment rate held near 4.1-4.3% through July 2026 with mixed but not sharply deteriorating payrolls, while leading indicators like the Conference Board LEI turned positive. Elevated inflation near 3.4% CPI—driven by prior energy shocks—has prompted Fed officials to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% with some dissent favoring hikes, yet baseline forecasts from S&P Global, U.S. Bank, and others project 2.0-2.1% annual GDP growth through 2027 without contraction. Key near-term catalysts include September FOMC deliberations, August employment and CPI releases, and any escalation in Middle East or trade tensions that could alter the growth-inflation balance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
Volume
$5,003End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 3:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product**Resilient U.S. economic expansion and a stable labor market underpin the 70.5% market-implied probability of no recession by end-2027.** Real GDP grew at a 1.5% annualized pace in Q2 2026 after 2.1% in Q1, supported by business investment in AI and technology alongside consumer spending. The unemployment rate held near 4.1-4.3% through July 2026 with mixed but not sharply deteriorating payrolls, while leading indicators like the Conference Board LEI turned positive. Elevated inflation near 3.4% CPI—driven by prior energy shocks—has prompted Fed officials to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% with some dissent favoring hikes, yet baseline forecasts from S&P Global, U.S. Bank, and others project 2.0-2.1% annual GDP growth through 2027 without contraction. Key near-term catalysts include September FOMC deliberations, August employment and CPI releases, and any escalation in Middle East or trade tensions that could alter the growth-inflation balance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Volume
$5,003End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 3:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Resilient U.S. economic expansion and a stable labor market underpin the 70.5% market-implied probability of no recession by end-2027.** Real GDP grew at a 1.5% annualized pace in Q2 2026 after 2.1% in Q1, supported by business investment in AI and technology alongside consumer spending. The unemployment rate held near 4.1-4.3% through July 2026 with mixed but not sharply deteriorating payrolls, while leading indicators like the Conference Board LEI turned positive. Elevated inflation near 3.4% CPI—driven by prior energy shocks—has prompted Fed officials to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% with some dissent favoring hikes, yet baseline forecasts from S&P Global, U.S. Bank, and others project 2.0-2.1% annual GDP growth through 2027 without contraction. Key near-term catalysts include September FOMC deliberations, August employment and CPI releases, and any escalation in Middle East or trade tensions that could alter the growth-inflation balance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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