UK GDP growth expectations for Q3 2026 remain closely contested, with modest positive outcomes clustered around 0.2-0.5% QoQ capturing over 46% of market-implied probability amid softening momentum. Key drivers include Q2's 0.4% expansion giving way to headwinds from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, which are pushing July CPI to 2.9% and core inflation steady at 2.6%, alongside unemployment rising toward 5.0% in Q3 per Bank of England projections. The BoE's decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% in July, with the next meeting on September 17, underscores caution on inflation persistence versus labor market slack. Traders weigh these against annual 2026 forecasts of 0.8-1.4% from sources like the IMF and OECD, where fiscal support and consumption trends could differentiate outcomes ahead of the Q3 release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.2–0.3% 26%
0.4–0.5% 22%
Negative 19%
0.0–0.1% 18%
NEW
NEW
Nov 11, 2026
Negative
19%
0.0–0.1%
18%
0.2–0.3%
26%
0.4–0.5%
22%
0.6–0.7%
11%
0.8–0.9%
1%
1.0%+
3%
0.2–0.3% 26%
0.4–0.5% 22%
Negative 19%
0.0–0.1% 18%
NEW
NEW
Nov 11, 2026
Negative
$1,945 Vol.
19%
0.0–0.1%
$3,679 Vol.
18%
0.2–0.3%
$2,044 Vol.
26%
0.4–0.5%
$725 Vol.
22%
0.6–0.7%
$203 Vol.
11%
0.8–0.9%
$190 Vol.
1%
1.0%+
$200 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.UK GDP growth expectations for Q3 2026 remain closely contested, with modest positive outcomes clustered around 0.2-0.5% QoQ capturing over 46% of market-implied probability amid softening momentum. Key drivers include Q2's 0.4% expansion giving way to headwinds from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, which are pushing July CPI to 2.9% and core inflation steady at 2.6%, alongside unemployment rising toward 5.0% in Q3 per Bank of England projections. The BoE's decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% in July, with the next meeting on September 17, underscores caution on inflation persistence versus labor market slack. Traders weigh these against annual 2026 forecasts of 0.8-1.4% from sources like the IMF and OECD, where fiscal support and consumption trends could differentiate outcomes ahead of the Q3 release.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ET
Volume
$8,986End Date
Nov 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.UK GDP growth expectations for Q3 2026 remain closely contested, with modest positive outcomes clustered around 0.2-0.5% QoQ capturing over 46% of market-implied probability amid softening momentum. Key drivers include Q2's 0.4% expansion giving way to headwinds from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, which are pushing July CPI to 2.9% and core inflation steady at 2.6%, alongside unemployment rising toward 5.0% in Q3 per Bank of England projections. The BoE's decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% in July, with the next meeting on September 17, underscores caution on inflation persistence versus labor market slack. Traders weigh these against annual 2026 forecasts of 0.8-1.4% from sources like the IMF and OECD, where fiscal support and consumption trends could differentiate outcomes ahead of the Q3 release.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$8,986End Date
Nov 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...UK GDP growth expectations for Q3 2026 remain closely contested, with modest positive outcomes clustered around 0.2-0.5% QoQ capturing over 46% of market-implied probability amid softening momentum. Key drivers include Q2's 0.4% expansion giving way to headwinds from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions, which are pushing July CPI to 2.9% and core inflation steady at 2.6%, alongside unemployment rising toward 5.0% in Q3 per Bank of England projections. The BoE's decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% in July, with the next meeting on September 17, underscores caution on inflation persistence versus labor market slack. Traders weigh these against annual 2026 forecasts of 0.8-1.4% from sources like the IMF and OECD, where fiscal support and consumption trends could differentiate outcomes ahead of the Q3 release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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