Recent data releases and nowcast models have positioned strong business investment—particularly AI-related capital expenditures—and resilient consumer spending as the main supports for Q3 2026 GDP growth, driving Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates to 4.0% and economist surveys to 2.5% annualized. These factors offset the Q2 slowdown to 1.5% and recent labor market softening, including July payroll declines and a 4.1% unemployment rate. Moderating inflation, with July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, and stable Fed policy at the 3.5-3.75% funds rate range have also sustained growth expectations. Key upcoming releases on retail sales, industrial production, and the September FOMC meeting will further shape market-implied probabilities clustered around the 2.0-3.0% range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated≥3.0% 32%
2.0–2.5% 25%
2.5–3.0% 23%
1.5–2.0% 8%
$23,063 Vol.
$23,063 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
2%
0.5–1.0%
6%
1.0–1.5%
6%
1.5–2.0%
8%
2.0–2.5%
25%
2.5–3.0%
23%
≥3.0%
32%
≥3.0% 32%
2.0–2.5% 25%
2.5–3.0% 23%
1.5–2.0% 8%
$23,063 Vol.
$23,063 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
$760 Vol.
2%
0.5–1.0%
$485 Vol.
6%
1.0–1.5%
$553 Vol.
6%
1.5–2.0%
$599 Vol.
8%
2.0–2.5%
$1,794 Vol.
25%
2.5–3.0%
$3,224 Vol.
23%
≥3.0%
$15,648 Vol.
32%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent data releases and nowcast models have positioned strong business investment—particularly AI-related capital expenditures—and resilient consumer spending as the main supports for Q3 2026 GDP growth, driving Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates to 4.0% and economist surveys to 2.5% annualized. These factors offset the Q2 slowdown to 1.5% and recent labor market softening, including July payroll declines and a 4.1% unemployment rate. Moderating inflation, with July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, and stable Fed policy at the 3.5-3.75% funds rate range have also sustained growth expectations. Key upcoming releases on retail sales, industrial production, and the September FOMC meeting will further shape market-implied probabilities clustered around the 2.0-3.0% range.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volume
$23,063End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent data releases and nowcast models have positioned strong business investment—particularly AI-related capital expenditures—and resilient consumer spending as the main supports for Q3 2026 GDP growth, driving Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates to 4.0% and economist surveys to 2.5% annualized. These factors offset the Q2 slowdown to 1.5% and recent labor market softening, including July payroll declines and a 4.1% unemployment rate. Moderating inflation, with July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, and stable Fed policy at the 3.5-3.75% funds rate range have also sustained growth expectations. Key upcoming releases on retail sales, industrial production, and the September FOMC meeting will further shape market-implied probabilities clustered around the 2.0-3.0% range.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$23,063End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent data releases and nowcast models have positioned strong business investment—particularly AI-related capital expenditures—and resilient consumer spending as the main supports for Q3 2026 GDP growth, driving Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates to 4.0% and economist surveys to 2.5% annualized. These factors offset the Q2 slowdown to 1.5% and recent labor market softening, including July payroll declines and a 4.1% unemployment rate. Moderating inflation, with July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, and stable Fed policy at the 3.5-3.75% funds rate range have also sustained growth expectations. Key upcoming releases on retail sales, industrial production, and the September FOMC meeting will further shape market-implied probabilities clustered around the 2.0-3.0% range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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