Recent July economic data showing retail sales growth of just 0.6% year-over-year, softer industrial output, and contracting fixed-asset investment have weighed on Q3 2026 GDP expectations, with Goldman Sachs tracking early-quarter expansion near 4% versus 4.3% in Q2. This demand-driven weakness, alongside Q2's 4.3% print and a full-year official target of 4.5-5%, underpins the near-even implied probabilities for the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% bins at 39.5% and 36.0%. Traders weigh resilient exports tied to global AI demand and potential H2 fiscal acceleration against persistent property-sector drag and subdued consumption, creating tight contestation around the midpoint of the annual range. Q3 GDP data, due in October, will resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.3-4.6% 40%
4.6-4.9% 37%
4.0-4.3% 16.7%
4.9-5.2% 2.8%
$28,479 Vol.
$28,479 Vol.
Oct 19, 2026
<3.4%
<1%
3.4-3.7%
<1%
3.7-4.0%
<1%
4.0-4.3%
17%
4.3-4.6%
40%
4.6-4.9%
37%
4.9-5.2%
3%
5.2-5.5%
1%
5.5%+
1%
4.3-4.6% 40%
4.6-4.9% 37%
4.0-4.3% 16.7%
4.9-5.2% 2.8%
$28,479 Vol.
$28,479 Vol.
Oct 19, 2026
<3.4%
$987 Vol.
<1%
3.4-3.7%
$666 Vol.
<1%
3.7-4.0%
$709 Vol.
<1%
4.0-4.3%
$1,915 Vol.
17%
4.3-4.6%
$11,204 Vol.
40%
4.6-4.9%
$8,121 Vol.
37%
4.9-5.2%
$2,873 Vol.
3%
5.2-5.5%
$929 Vol.
1%
5.5%+
$1,075 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent July economic data showing retail sales growth of just 0.6% year-over-year, softer industrial output, and contracting fixed-asset investment have weighed on Q3 2026 GDP expectations, with Goldman Sachs tracking early-quarter expansion near 4% versus 4.3% in Q2. This demand-driven weakness, alongside Q2's 4.3% print and a full-year official target of 4.5-5%, underpins the near-even implied probabilities for the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% bins at 39.5% and 36.0%. Traders weigh resilient exports tied to global AI demand and potential H2 fiscal acceleration against persistent property-sector drag and subdued consumption, creating tight contestation around the midpoint of the annual range. Q3 GDP data, due in October, will resolve the market.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Volume
$28,479End Date
Oct 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent July economic data showing retail sales growth of just 0.6% year-over-year, softer industrial output, and contracting fixed-asset investment have weighed on Q3 2026 GDP expectations, with Goldman Sachs tracking early-quarter expansion near 4% versus 4.3% in Q2. This demand-driven weakness, alongside Q2's 4.3% print and a full-year official target of 4.5-5%, underpins the near-even implied probabilities for the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% bins at 39.5% and 36.0%. Traders weigh resilient exports tied to global AI demand and potential H2 fiscal acceleration against persistent property-sector drag and subdued consumption, creating tight contestation around the midpoint of the annual range. Q3 GDP data, due in October, will resolve the market.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volume
$28,479End Date
Oct 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July economic data showing retail sales growth of just 0.6% year-over-year, softer industrial output, and contracting fixed-asset investment have weighed on Q3 2026 GDP expectations, with Goldman Sachs tracking early-quarter expansion near 4% versus 4.3% in Q2. This demand-driven weakness, alongside Q2's 4.3% print and a full-year official target of 4.5-5%, underpins the near-even implied probabilities for the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% bins at 39.5% and 36.0%. Traders weigh resilient exports tied to global AI demand and potential H2 fiscal acceleration against persistent property-sector drag and subdued consumption, creating tight contestation around the midpoint of the annual range. Q3 GDP data, due in October, will resolve the market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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