Recent U.S. economic data and institutional forecasts underpin the 96.5% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth for 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.5% annualized real GDP expansion in Q2 2026, following 2.1% in Q1, while the Congressional Budget Office, Vanguard, and Philadelphia Fed survey project full-year growth of 2.0–2.3%. This trajectory reflects resilient business investment in productivity-enhancing technologies, fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures, and a labor market holding unemployment near 4.5%. Trader consensus prices in these fundamentals as durable enough to avoid contraction over the full calendar year. Tail-risk scenarios include sharp escalation in trade tensions or energy shocks that could compress growth below zero, though such outcomes remain low-probability given current momentum and policy buffers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
4% chance
$32,761 Vol.
$32,761 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
4% chance
$32,761 Vol.
$32,761 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and institutional forecasts underpin the 96.5% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth for 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.5% annualized real GDP expansion in Q2 2026, following 2.1% in Q1, while the Congressional Budget Office, Vanguard, and Philadelphia Fed survey project full-year growth of 2.0–2.3%. This trajectory reflects resilient business investment in productivity-enhancing technologies, fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures, and a labor market holding unemployment near 4.5%. Trader consensus prices in these fundamentals as durable enough to avoid contraction over the full calendar year. Tail-risk scenarios include sharp escalation in trade tensions or energy shocks that could compress growth below zero, though such outcomes remain low-probability given current momentum and policy buffers.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$32,761End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and institutional forecasts underpin the 96.5% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth for 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.5% annualized real GDP expansion in Q2 2026, following 2.1% in Q1, while the Congressional Budget Office, Vanguard, and Philadelphia Fed survey project full-year growth of 2.0–2.3%. This trajectory reflects resilient business investment in productivity-enhancing technologies, fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures, and a labor market holding unemployment near 4.5%. Trader consensus prices in these fundamentals as durable enough to avoid contraction over the full calendar year. Tail-risk scenarios include sharp escalation in trade tensions or energy shocks that could compress growth below zero, though such outcomes remain low-probability given current momentum and policy buffers.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$32,761End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. economic data and institutional forecasts underpin the 96.5% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth for 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.5% annualized real GDP expansion in Q2 2026, following 2.1% in Q1, while the Congressional Budget Office, Vanguard, and Philadelphia Fed survey project full-year growth of 2.0–2.3%. This trajectory reflects resilient business investment in productivity-enhancing technologies, fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures, and a labor market holding unemployment near 4.5%. Trader consensus prices in these fundamentals as durable enough to avoid contraction over the full calendar year. Tail-risk scenarios include sharp escalation in trade tensions or energy shocks that could compress growth below zero, though such outcomes remain low-probability given current momentum and policy buffers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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