Recent July nonfarm payrolls declined 23,000—well below the 80,000 consensus—with more than 100,000 downward revisions to prior months, shifting trader sentiment toward subdued August gains amid a low-hire, low-fire labor market. The unemployment rate eased to 4.1 percent while labor force participation hit a multi-year low and wage growth moderated, reflecting balanced but softening conditions rather than outright contraction. With the top two outcome bins (50k–100k at 31.5 percent and 0–50k at 26.5 percent) closely contested, markets price in continued moderation ahead of the September 4 release, tempered by stable initial claims near 209,000 and ongoing focus on inflation versus employment data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated50k – 100k 32%
0 – 50k 27%
100k – 150k 13.6%
-50k – 0 13%
$14,513 Vol.
$14,513 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
<-50k
7%
-50k – 0
13%
0 – 50k
27%
50k – 100k
32%
100k – 150k
14%
150k+
10%
50k – 100k 32%
0 – 50k 27%
100k – 150k 13.6%
-50k – 0 13%
$14,513 Vol.
$14,513 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
<-50k
$835 Vol.
7%
-50k – 0
$1,437 Vol.
13%
0 – 50k
$8,802 Vol.
27%
50k – 100k
$2,761 Vol.
32%
100k – 150k
$203 Vol.
14%
150k+
$475 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRecent July nonfarm payrolls declined 23,000—well below the 80,000 consensus—with more than 100,000 downward revisions to prior months, shifting trader sentiment toward subdued August gains amid a low-hire, low-fire labor market. The unemployment rate eased to 4.1 percent while labor force participation hit a multi-year low and wage growth moderated, reflecting balanced but softening conditions rather than outright contraction. With the top two outcome bins (50k–100k at 31.5 percent and 0–50k at 26.5 percent) closely contested, markets price in continued moderation ahead of the September 4 release, tempered by stable initial claims near 209,000 and ongoing focus on inflation versus employment data.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ET
Volume
$14,513End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRecent July nonfarm payrolls declined 23,000—well below the 80,000 consensus—with more than 100,000 downward revisions to prior months, shifting trader sentiment toward subdued August gains amid a low-hire, low-fire labor market. The unemployment rate eased to 4.1 percent while labor force participation hit a multi-year low and wage growth moderated, reflecting balanced but softening conditions rather than outright contraction. With the top two outcome bins (50k–100k at 31.5 percent and 0–50k at 26.5 percent) closely contested, markets price in continued moderation ahead of the September 4 release, tempered by stable initial claims near 209,000 and ongoing focus on inflation versus employment data.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for August 2026, scheduled to be released on September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Volume
$14,513End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July nonfarm payrolls declined 23,000—well below the 80,000 consensus—with more than 100,000 downward revisions to prior months, shifting trader sentiment toward subdued August gains amid a low-hire, low-fire labor market. The unemployment rate eased to 4.1 percent while labor force participation hit a multi-year low and wage growth moderated, reflecting balanced but softening conditions rather than outright contraction. With the top two outcome bins (50k–100k at 31.5 percent and 0–50k at 26.5 percent) closely contested, markets price in continued moderation ahead of the September 4 release, tempered by stable initial claims near 209,000 and ongoing focus on inflation versus employment data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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