Recent data show Austin metro median sale prices hovering between $414,000 and $435,000 through July and August 2026, with year-over-year declines of 1% to 6% across sources. Elevated mortgage rates near 6.5–7%, combined with elevated inventory from the pandemic-era construction surge, continue to exert downward pressure on valuations while extending days on market and prompting larger seller concessions. These dynamics position the sub-$446,000 outcome as the market-implied consensus, reflecting trader assessment that seasonal stabilization or modest seasonal upticks are unlikely to push the median above the threshold before September 30 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<$446K 89%
$446K - $454K 5.0%
$470K - $478K 4.3%
$454K - $462K 2.4%
$83,393 Vol.
$83,393 Vol.
<$446K
89%
$446K - $454K
5%
$454K - $462K
2%
$462K - $470K
2%
$470K - $478K
4%
$478K - $486K
1%
$486K+
1%
<$446K 89%
$446K - $454K 5.0%
$470K - $478K 4.3%
$454K - $462K 2.4%
$83,393 Vol.
$83,393 Vol.
<$446K
89%
$446K - $454K
5%
$454K - $462K
2%
$462K - $470K
2%
$470K - $478K
4%
$478K - $486K
1%
$486K+
1%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent data show Austin metro median sale prices hovering between $414,000 and $435,000 through July and August 2026, with year-over-year declines of 1% to 6% across sources. Elevated mortgage rates near 6.5–7%, combined with elevated inventory from the pandemic-era construction surge, continue to exert downward pressure on valuations while extending days on market and prompting larger seller concessions. These dynamics position the sub-$446,000 outcome as the market-implied consensus, reflecting trader assessment that seasonal stabilization or modest seasonal upticks are unlikely to push the median above the threshold before September 30 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions