Recent legislative action through the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act permanently extended several Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions but left long-term federal capital gains rates unchanged at their existing 0/15/20 percent structure. As of August 2026, multiple bills to index gains for inflation or expand home-sale exclusions remain stalled in committee, while fresh administration discussions about potential rate relief or regulatory indexing have not advanced to enacted law. With midterms approaching and limited remaining session time, passage of any reduction faces significant procedural and political barriers before year-end. Trader consensus reflected in the 84 percent “No” probability aligns with the absence of completed legislative or executive action altering the rates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated16% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
16% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent legislative action through the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act permanently extended several Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions but left long-term federal capital gains rates unchanged at their existing 0/15/20 percent structure. As of August 2026, multiple bills to index gains for inflation or expand home-sale exclusions remain stalled in committee, while fresh administration discussions about potential rate relief or regulatory indexing have not advanced to enacted law. With midterms approaching and limited remaining session time, passage of any reduction faces significant procedural and political barriers before year-end. Trader consensus reflected in the 84 percent “No” probability aligns with the absence of completed legislative or executive action altering the rates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Volume
$207End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent legislative action through the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act permanently extended several Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions but left long-term federal capital gains rates unchanged at their existing 0/15/20 percent structure. As of August 2026, multiple bills to index gains for inflation or expand home-sale exclusions remain stalled in committee, while fresh administration discussions about potential rate relief or regulatory indexing have not advanced to enacted law. With midterms approaching and limited remaining session time, passage of any reduction faces significant procedural and political barriers before year-end. Trader consensus reflected in the 84 percent “No” probability aligns with the absence of completed legislative or executive action altering the rates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$207End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent legislative action through the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act permanently extended several Tax Cuts and Jobs Act provisions but left long-term federal capital gains rates unchanged at their existing 0/15/20 percent structure. As of August 2026, multiple bills to index gains for inflation or expand home-sale exclusions remain stalled in committee, while fresh administration discussions about potential rate relief or regulatory indexing have not advanced to enacted law. With midterms approaching and limited remaining session time, passage of any reduction faces significant procedural and political barriers before year-end. Trader consensus reflected in the 84 percent “No” probability aligns with the absence of completed legislative or executive action altering the rates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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