California voters will decide Proposition 40 on November 3, 2026, a ballot initiative that would impose a one-time 5% tax on the net worth of residents valued above $1 billion as of January 1, 2026, with most revenue directed to healthcare programs offsetting federal cuts. The measure qualified after a labor union gathered sufficient signatures, but negotiations for a compromise rate or withdrawal collapsed amid opposition from Governor Gavin Newsom, who favors a federal approach, and multiple Democratic-aligned groups. Billionaires including Sergey Brin have spent over $80 million backing rival initiatives designed to nullify the tax if they receive more votes, while polls have shown narrow initial support that faces erosion from concerns over resident outflows and state revenue volatility. These dynamics, combined with high campaign spending, shape the current trader consensus reflected in the market price.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated29% chance
$3,684,236 Vol.
$3,684,236 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
29% chance
$3,684,236 Vol.
$3,684,236 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.California voters will decide Proposition 40 on November 3, 2026, a ballot initiative that would impose a one-time 5% tax on the net worth of residents valued above $1 billion as of January 1, 2026, with most revenue directed to healthcare programs offsetting federal cuts. The measure qualified after a labor union gathered sufficient signatures, but negotiations for a compromise rate or withdrawal collapsed amid opposition from Governor Gavin Newsom, who favors a federal approach, and multiple Democratic-aligned groups. Billionaires including Sergey Brin have spent over $80 million backing rival initiatives designed to nullify the tax if they receive more votes, while polls have shown narrow initial support that faces erosion from concerns over resident outflows and state revenue volatility. These dynamics, combined with high campaign spending, shape the current trader consensus reflected in the market price.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
Volume
$3,684,236End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.California voters will decide Proposition 40 on November 3, 2026, a ballot initiative that would impose a one-time 5% tax on the net worth of residents valued above $1 billion as of January 1, 2026, with most revenue directed to healthcare programs offsetting federal cuts. The measure qualified after a labor union gathered sufficient signatures, but negotiations for a compromise rate or withdrawal collapsed amid opposition from Governor Gavin Newsom, who favors a federal approach, and multiple Democratic-aligned groups. Billionaires including Sergey Brin have spent over $80 million backing rival initiatives designed to nullify the tax if they receive more votes, while polls have shown narrow initial support that faces erosion from concerns over resident outflows and state revenue volatility. These dynamics, combined with high campaign spending, shape the current trader consensus reflected in the market price.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,684,236End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...California voters will decide Proposition 40 on November 3, 2026, a ballot initiative that would impose a one-time 5% tax on the net worth of residents valued above $1 billion as of January 1, 2026, with most revenue directed to healthcare programs offsetting federal cuts. The measure qualified after a labor union gathered sufficient signatures, but negotiations for a compromise rate or withdrawal collapsed amid opposition from Governor Gavin Newsom, who favors a federal approach, and multiple Democratic-aligned groups. Billionaires including Sergey Brin have spent over $80 million backing rival initiatives designed to nullify the tax if they receive more votes, while polls have shown narrow initial support that faces erosion from concerns over resident outflows and state revenue volatility. These dynamics, combined with high campaign spending, shape the current trader consensus reflected in the market price.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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