California voters will decide Proposition 3 on November 3, 2026, which would make permanent the higher personal income tax rates on earners above roughly $360,000 single or $721,000 joint that voters approved in 2012 and extended in 2016. The measure qualified for the ballot in June after supporters gathered more than 1.6 million signatures, well above the threshold, with backing from major education unions directing revenues primarily to K-12 schools and community colleges. Legislative analysts estimate it would preserve $5 billion to $15 billion in annual revenue currently set to expire after 2030. These factors, combined with the precedent of prior voter approval of the same rates, underpin the 73% implied probability for passage among traders assessing the November outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCalifornia High-Earner Permanent Tax Proposition
California High-Earner Permanent Tax Proposition
66% chance
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
66% chance
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).California voters will decide Proposition 3 on November 3, 2026, which would make permanent the higher personal income tax rates on earners above roughly $360,000 single or $721,000 joint that voters approved in 2012 and extended in 2016. The measure qualified for the ballot in June after supporters gathered more than 1.6 million signatures, well above the threshold, with backing from major education unions directing revenues primarily to K-12 schools and community colleges. Legislative analysts estimate it would preserve $5 billion to $15 billion in annual revenue currently set to expire after 2030. These factors, combined with the precedent of prior voter approval of the same rates, underpin the 73% implied probability for passage among traders assessing the November outcome.
Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 6:27 PM ET
Volume
$2,224End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 6:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).California voters will decide Proposition 3 on November 3, 2026, which would make permanent the higher personal income tax rates on earners above roughly $360,000 single or $721,000 joint that voters approved in 2012 and extended in 2016. The measure qualified for the ballot in June after supporters gathered more than 1.6 million signatures, well above the threshold, with backing from major education unions directing revenues primarily to K-12 schools and community colleges. Legislative analysts estimate it would preserve $5 billion to $15 billion in annual revenue currently set to expire after 2030. These factors, combined with the precedent of prior voter approval of the same rates, underpin the 73% implied probability for passage among traders assessing the November outcome.
Proposition 3 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would make permanent a temporary income tax (up to 12%) on high earners that voters approved in 2012, set to expire in 2031.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Volume
$2,224End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 6:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...California voters will decide Proposition 3 on November 3, 2026, which would make permanent the higher personal income tax rates on earners above roughly $360,000 single or $721,000 joint that voters approved in 2012 and extended in 2016. The measure qualified for the ballot in June after supporters gathered more than 1.6 million signatures, well above the threshold, with backing from major education unions directing revenues primarily to K-12 schools and community colleges. Legislative analysts estimate it would preserve $5 billion to $15 billion in annual revenue currently set to expire after 2030. These factors, combined with the precedent of prior voter approval of the same rates, underpin the 73% implied probability for passage among traders assessing the November outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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