Several 2026 Senate contests remain structurally competitive due to open seats and narrow state fundamentals, with Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Maine, Ohio, and Alaska drawing the most attention in recent ratings from Cook, Sabato, and Inside Elections. Open Democratic seats in Michigan and New Hampshire, combined with Republican-held seats in North Carolina and Maine, create paths for margins under 1 percent when national conditions align with local polling trends. Candidate recruitment, primary outcomes, and fundraising have kept these races fluid through August, while broader midterm dynamics and voter turnout patterns in battleground states could compress or widen final spreads. Traders monitor upcoming primaries and fall polling for signals on which specific matchups will resolve closest to the 1 percent threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Nov 3, 2026
Iowa
21%
Michigan
19%
Alaska
18%
Ohio (Special)
18%
Texas
18%
New Hampshire
15%
Maine
15%
Nebraska
13%
Montana
13%
Virginia
12%
New Mexico
11%
North Carolina
11%
Minnesota
9%
Georgia
9%
Florida (Special)
5%
Colorado
3%
$1,051 Vol.
Iowa
$0 Vol.
21%
Michigan
$0 Vol.
19%
Alaska
$28 Vol.
18%
Ohio (Special)
$0 Vol.
18%
Texas
$42 Vol.
18%
New Hampshire
$13 Vol.
15%
Maine
$0 Vol.
15%
Nebraska
$0 Vol.
13%
Montana
$24 Vol.
13%
Virginia
$24 Vol.
12%
New Mexico
$21 Vol.
11%
North Carolina
$0 Vol.
11%
Minnesota
$0 Vol.
9%
Georgia
$0 Vol.
9%
Florida (Special)
$0 Vol.
5%
Colorado
$900 Vol.
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests remain structurally competitive due to open seats and narrow state fundamentals, with Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Maine, Ohio, and Alaska drawing the most attention in recent ratings from Cook, Sabato, and Inside Elections. Open Democratic seats in Michigan and New Hampshire, combined with Republican-held seats in North Carolina and Maine, create paths for margins under 1 percent when national conditions align with local polling trends. Candidate recruitment, primary outcomes, and fundraising have kept these races fluid through August, while broader midterm dynamics and voter turnout patterns in battleground states could compress or widen final spreads. Traders monitor upcoming primaries and fall polling for signals on which specific matchups will resolve closest to the 1 percent threshold.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ET
Volume
$1,051End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests remain structurally competitive due to open seats and narrow state fundamentals, with Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Maine, Ohio, and Alaska drawing the most attention in recent ratings from Cook, Sabato, and Inside Elections. Open Democratic seats in Michigan and New Hampshire, combined with Republican-held seats in North Carolina and Maine, create paths for margins under 1 percent when national conditions align with local polling trends. Candidate recruitment, primary outcomes, and fundraising have kept these races fluid through August, while broader midterm dynamics and voter turnout patterns in battleground states could compress or widen final spreads. Traders monitor upcoming primaries and fall polling for signals on which specific matchups will resolve closest to the 1 percent threshold.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,051End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Several 2026 Senate contests remain structurally competitive due to open seats and narrow state fundamentals, with Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Maine, Ohio, and Alaska drawing the most attention in recent ratings from Cook, Sabato, and Inside Elections. Open Democratic seats in Michigan and New Hampshire, combined with Republican-held seats in North Carolina and Maine, create paths for margins under 1 percent when national conditions align with local polling trends. Candidate recruitment, primary outcomes, and fundraising have kept these races fluid through August, while broader midterm dynamics and voter turnout patterns in battleground states could compress or widen final spreads. Traders monitor upcoming primaries and fall polling for signals on which specific matchups will resolve closest to the 1 percent threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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