**Trader consensus that neither Jon Ossoff nor Raphael Warnock will leave the Senate in 2026 rests on structural and campaign fundamentals.** Ossoff, the only one facing voters this cycle, holds consistent leads of 7–8 points in recent polling averages against Republican Mike Collins, with forecasters rating the Georgia race Lean or Likely Democratic. Strong fundraising, broad support among key voting blocs, and the absence of major vulnerabilities have kept the contest from tightening materially. Warnock’s term runs through 2029, removing any near-term risk of departure. Late developments such as health events, major scandals, or sharp national shifts could still alter the outcome before November, though current evidence points to high continuity in both seats.