The 2026 Senate map includes 35 seats, with Republicans defending 22 compared to 13 for Democrats, creating a structural tilt that requires Democrats to net at least four gains for majority control. Nonpartisan ratings identify roughly a dozen battlegrounds, including six toss-ups concentrated among Republican-held seats in states such as Maine, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Alaska. Recent state legislative special elections show Democrats outperforming 2024 presidential baselines by double digits, while August primaries have produced shakeups that could narrow margins in key contests. Fundraising, candidate recruitment, and national generic ballot trends remain central variables that traders monitor for shifts toward or away from sub-5% finishes in these races.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$41,897 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
87%
Alaska
85%
Iowa
68%
Maine
67%
Ohio (Special)
66%
Michigan
54%
Nebraska
53%
New Hampshire
52%
Florida (Special)
32%
Georgia
19%
New Mexico
12%
North Carolina
8%
Minnesota
5%
Montana
4%
Colorado
2%
Virginia
2%
$41,897 Vol.
Texas
$2,468 Vol.
87%
Alaska
$1,766 Vol.
85%
Iowa
$3,456 Vol.
68%
Maine
$708 Vol.
67%
Ohio (Special)
$2,881 Vol.
66%
Michigan
$2,301 Vol.
54%
Nebraska
$2,650 Vol.
53%
New Hampshire
$2,072 Vol.
52%
Florida (Special)
$1,480 Vol.
32%
Georgia
$686 Vol.
19%
New Mexico
$6,374 Vol.
12%
North Carolina
$2,559 Vol.
8%
Minnesota
$7,615 Vol.
5%
Montana
$1,885 Vol.
4%
Colorado
$1,823 Vol.
2%
Virginia
$1,173 Vol.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 Senate map includes 35 seats, with Republicans defending 22 compared to 13 for Democrats, creating a structural tilt that requires Democrats to net at least four gains for majority control. Nonpartisan ratings identify roughly a dozen battlegrounds, including six toss-ups concentrated among Republican-held seats in states such as Maine, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Alaska. Recent state legislative special elections show Democrats outperforming 2024 presidential baselines by double digits, while August primaries have produced shakeups that could narrow margins in key contests. Fundraising, candidate recruitment, and national generic ballot trends remain central variables that traders monitor for shifts toward or away from sub-5% finishes in these races.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$41,897End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 Senate map includes 35 seats, with Republicans defending 22 compared to 13 for Democrats, creating a structural tilt that requires Democrats to net at least four gains for majority control. Nonpartisan ratings identify roughly a dozen battlegrounds, including six toss-ups concentrated among Republican-held seats in states such as Maine, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Alaska. Recent state legislative special elections show Democrats outperforming 2024 presidential baselines by double digits, while August primaries have produced shakeups that could narrow margins in key contests. Fundraising, candidate recruitment, and national generic ballot trends remain central variables that traders monitor for shifts toward or away from sub-5% finishes in these races.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$41,897End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Senate map includes 35 seats, with Republicans defending 22 compared to 13 for Democrats, creating a structural tilt that requires Democrats to net at least four gains for majority control. Nonpartisan ratings identify roughly a dozen battlegrounds, including six toss-ups concentrated among Republican-held seats in states such as Maine, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Alaska. Recent state legislative special elections show Democrats outperforming 2024 presidential baselines by double digits, while August primaries have produced shakeups that could narrow margins in key contests. Fundraising, candidate recruitment, and national generic ballot trends remain central variables that traders monitor for shifts toward or away from sub-5% finishes in these races.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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