Multiple Republican-held Senate seats remain highly competitive heading into the 2026 midterms, with Texas, Alaska, Iowa, and the Ohio special election leading trader assessments due to recent rating shifts to toss-up status by outlets like Cook Political Report and narrow polling margins often under three points. Strong Democratic challengers such as Mary Peltola in Alaska, Josh Turek in Iowa, James Talarico in Texas, and Sherrod Brown in Ohio have kept races tight against Republican incumbents or nominees like Dan Sullivan, Ashley Hinson, Ken Paxton, and Jon Husted. Economic pressures, candidate recruitment, and midterm dynamics contribute to the balance, while upcoming debates, ad campaigns, and late-cycle polling could widen gaps or shift consensus toward one contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTexas 16%
Alaska 15%
Iowa 11.9%
Ohio (Special) 10.6%
$33,840 Vol.
$33,840 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
16%
Alaska
15%
Iowa
12%
Ohio (Special)
11%
Maine
8%
Michigan
7%
Nebraska
7%
Florida (Special)
3%
New Mexico
3%
Georgia
2%
North Carolina
2%
Virginia
2%
New Hampshire
2%
Minnesota
1%
Colorado
1%
Montana
<1%
Texas 16%
Alaska 15%
Iowa 11.9%
Ohio (Special) 10.6%
$33,840 Vol.
$33,840 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
$1,714 Vol.
16%
Alaska
$6,032 Vol.
15%
Iowa
$2,816 Vol.
12%
Ohio (Special)
$8,805 Vol.
11%
Maine
$1,285 Vol.
8%
Michigan
$2,652 Vol.
7%
Nebraska
$293 Vol.
7%
Florida (Special)
$253 Vol.
3%
New Mexico
$160 Vol.
3%
Georgia
$824 Vol.
2%
North Carolina
$621 Vol.
2%
Virginia
$5,073 Vol.
2%
New Hampshire
$490 Vol.
2%
Minnesota
$1,489 Vol.
1%
Colorado
$716 Vol.
1%
Montana
$616 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Multiple Republican-held Senate seats remain highly competitive heading into the 2026 midterms, with Texas, Alaska, Iowa, and the Ohio special election leading trader assessments due to recent rating shifts to toss-up status by outlets like Cook Political Report and narrow polling margins often under three points. Strong Democratic challengers such as Mary Peltola in Alaska, Josh Turek in Iowa, James Talarico in Texas, and Sherrod Brown in Ohio have kept races tight against Republican incumbents or nominees like Dan Sullivan, Ashley Hinson, Ken Paxton, and Jon Husted. Economic pressures, candidate recruitment, and midterm dynamics contribute to the balance, while upcoming debates, ad campaigns, and late-cycle polling could widen gaps or shift consensus toward one contest.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Volume
$33,840End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Multiple Republican-held Senate seats remain highly competitive heading into the 2026 midterms, with Texas, Alaska, Iowa, and the Ohio special election leading trader assessments due to recent rating shifts to toss-up status by outlets like Cook Political Report and narrow polling margins often under three points. Strong Democratic challengers such as Mary Peltola in Alaska, Josh Turek in Iowa, James Talarico in Texas, and Sherrod Brown in Ohio have kept races tight against Republican incumbents or nominees like Dan Sullivan, Ashley Hinson, Ken Paxton, and Jon Husted. Economic pressures, candidate recruitment, and midterm dynamics contribute to the balance, while upcoming debates, ad campaigns, and late-cycle polling could widen gaps or shift consensus toward one contest.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$33,840End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Multiple Republican-held Senate seats remain highly competitive heading into the 2026 midterms, with Texas, Alaska, Iowa, and the Ohio special election leading trader assessments due to recent rating shifts to toss-up status by outlets like Cook Political Report and narrow polling margins often under three points. Strong Democratic challengers such as Mary Peltola in Alaska, Josh Turek in Iowa, James Talarico in Texas, and Sherrod Brown in Ohio have kept races tight against Republican incumbents or nominees like Dan Sullivan, Ashley Hinson, Ken Paxton, and Jon Husted. Economic pressures, candidate recruitment, and midterm dynamics contribute to the balance, while upcoming debates, ad campaigns, and late-cycle polling could widen gaps or shift consensus toward one contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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