Arizona's nine congressional districts feature a current 6-3 Republican edge, with Democrats holding three solidly Democratic seats in districts 3, 4, and 7. The two most competitive Republican-held seats—open district 1 and district 6—stand as toss-ups per ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, creating the main path for Democratic gains through candidate recruitment, fundraising, and turnout in these battlegrounds. Retirements by Republican incumbents seeking higher office have opened district 1, while primaries concluded in July without major disruptions. National midterm dynamics and district-level polling averages position five Democratic seats as the leading trader consensus outcome at 45.5 percent, reflecting the likelihood of holding safe seats while flipping one or both marginal districts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5 51%
6 18%
4 14.0%
7+ 8.0%
$11,387 Vol.
$11,387 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
<3
3%
3
5%
4
14%
5
51%
6
18%
7+
11%
5 51%
6 18%
4 14.0%
7+ 8.0%
$11,387 Vol.
$11,387 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
<3
$661 Vol.
3%
3
$4,303 Vol.
5%
4
$1,719 Vol.
14%
5
$2,884 Vol.
51%
6
$1,108 Vol.
18%
7+
$712 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Arizona in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Arizona's nine congressional districts feature a current 6-3 Republican edge, with Democrats holding three solidly Democratic seats in districts 3, 4, and 7. The two most competitive Republican-held seats—open district 1 and district 6—stand as toss-ups per ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, creating the main path for Democratic gains through candidate recruitment, fundraising, and turnout in these battlegrounds. Retirements by Republican incumbents seeking higher office have opened district 1, while primaries concluded in July without major disruptions. National midterm dynamics and district-level polling averages position five Democratic seats as the leading trader consensus outcome at 45.5 percent, reflecting the likelihood of holding safe seats while flipping one or both marginal districts.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Arizona in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 10:12 AM ET
Volume
$11,387End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Arizona in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Arizona's nine congressional districts feature a current 6-3 Republican edge, with Democrats holding three solidly Democratic seats in districts 3, 4, and 7. The two most competitive Republican-held seats—open district 1 and district 6—stand as toss-ups per ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, creating the main path for Democratic gains through candidate recruitment, fundraising, and turnout in these battlegrounds. Retirements by Republican incumbents seeking higher office have opened district 1, while primaries concluded in July without major disruptions. National midterm dynamics and district-level polling averages position five Democratic seats as the leading trader consensus outcome at 45.5 percent, reflecting the likelihood of holding safe seats while flipping one or both marginal districts.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Arizona in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$11,387End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Arizona's nine congressional districts feature a current 6-3 Republican edge, with Democrats holding three solidly Democratic seats in districts 3, 4, and 7. The two most competitive Republican-held seats—open district 1 and district 6—stand as toss-ups per ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, creating the main path for Democratic gains through candidate recruitment, fundraising, and turnout in these battlegrounds. Retirements by Republican incumbents seeking higher office have opened district 1, while primaries concluded in July without major disruptions. National midterm dynamics and district-level polling averages position five Democratic seats as the leading trader consensus outcome at 45.5 percent, reflecting the likelihood of holding safe seats while flipping one or both marginal districts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions