Several 2026 gubernatorial contests remain tightly matched in early polling and forecasting models, with Ohio, Iowa, Georgia, and Wisconsin frequently cited among the narrowest. Open seats from term limits and retirements have produced competitive nominee pairings in these states, where polling averages often show single-digit or near-tie margins. Economic conditions, including tariff effects in Iowa, candidate recruitment, and shifting partisan turnout patterns contribute to the current clustering of probabilities. Primary outcomes and recent rating adjustments have kept Ohio and Iowa near the top of trader focus, while later-cycle developments such as debates, additional polling releases, or national economic shifts could widen gaps or elevate other states like Kansas or Texas.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOhio 15.3%
Iowa 11.8%
Georgia 11.8%
Wisconsin 11.6%
$12,889 Vol.
$12,889 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Ohio
15%
Iowa
12%
Georgia
12%
Wisconsin
12%
Texas
11%
Kansas
10%
Florida
9%
Nevada
9%
New Hampshire
7%
Alaska
6%
New Mexico
4%
Vermont
3%
Michigan
3%
Colorado
2%
Arizona
2%
Maine
1%
Oregon
1%
Minnesota
9%
Ohio 15.3%
Iowa 11.8%
Georgia 11.8%
Wisconsin 11.6%
$12,889 Vol.
$12,889 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Ohio
$505 Vol.
15%
Iowa
$1,485 Vol.
12%
Georgia
$424 Vol.
12%
Wisconsin
$1,045 Vol.
12%
Texas
$1,689 Vol.
11%
Kansas
$2,114 Vol.
10%
Florida
$234 Vol.
9%
Nevada
$2,572 Vol.
9%
New Hampshire
$434 Vol.
7%
Alaska
$212 Vol.
6%
New Mexico
$199 Vol.
4%
Vermont
$181 Vol.
3%
Michigan
$334 Vol.
3%
Colorado
$248 Vol.
2%
Arizona
$274 Vol.
2%
Maine
$360 Vol.
1%
Oregon
$331 Vol.
1%
Minnesota
$249 Vol.
9%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 gubernatorial contests remain tightly matched in early polling and forecasting models, with Ohio, Iowa, Georgia, and Wisconsin frequently cited among the narrowest. Open seats from term limits and retirements have produced competitive nominee pairings in these states, where polling averages often show single-digit or near-tie margins. Economic conditions, including tariff effects in Iowa, candidate recruitment, and shifting partisan turnout patterns contribute to the current clustering of probabilities. Primary outcomes and recent rating adjustments have kept Ohio and Iowa near the top of trader focus, while later-cycle developments such as debates, additional polling releases, or national economic shifts could widen gaps or elevate other states like Kansas or Texas.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$12,889End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 gubernatorial contests remain tightly matched in early polling and forecasting models, with Ohio, Iowa, Georgia, and Wisconsin frequently cited among the narrowest. Open seats from term limits and retirements have produced competitive nominee pairings in these states, where polling averages often show single-digit or near-tie margins. Economic conditions, including tariff effects in Iowa, candidate recruitment, and shifting partisan turnout patterns contribute to the current clustering of probabilities. Primary outcomes and recent rating adjustments have kept Ohio and Iowa near the top of trader focus, while later-cycle developments such as debates, additional polling releases, or national economic shifts could widen gaps or elevate other states like Kansas or Texas.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$12,889End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Several 2026 gubernatorial contests remain tightly matched in early polling and forecasting models, with Ohio, Iowa, Georgia, and Wisconsin frequently cited among the narrowest. Open seats from term limits and retirements have produced competitive nominee pairings in these states, where polling averages often show single-digit or near-tie margins. Economic conditions, including tariff effects in Iowa, candidate recruitment, and shifting partisan turnout patterns contribute to the current clustering of probabilities. Primary outcomes and recent rating adjustments have kept Ohio and Iowa near the top of trader focus, while later-cycle developments such as debates, additional polling releases, or national economic shifts could widen gaps or elevate other states like Kansas or Texas.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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