Recent polling averages and economic indicators have kept trader probabilities tightly clustered around a Democratic generic ballot advantage of roughly six to seven points, with four outcomes each commanding 38-39% implied probability. This reflects ongoing uncertainty over voter sentiment in the lead-up to the 2026 midterms, where factors such as turnout patterns among key demographic groups, approval trends for the current administration, and the impact of recent legislative votes continue to influence expectations. Limited major announcements or shifts in the past week have prevented any single margin from pulling ahead decisively. Scheduled releases of national surveys on August 24, along with any last-minute campaign events or economic data drops, could quickly separate the leading brackets by altering crowd assessments of the final reported spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDems +6.8–6.9% 39%
Dems +6.6–6.7% 39%
Dems +6.4–6.5% 39%
Dems +6.3% or lower 38%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
Dems +7.2%+
12%
Dems +7.0–7.1%
10%
Dems +6.8–6.9%
39%
Dems +6.6–6.7%
39%
Dems +6.4–6.5%
39%
Dems +6.3% or lower
38%
Dems +6.8–6.9% 39%
Dems +6.6–6.7% 39%
Dems +6.4–6.5% 39%
Dems +6.3% or lower 38%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
Dems +7.2%+
$0 Vol.
12%
Dems +7.0–7.1%
$130 Vol.
10%
Dems +6.8–6.9%
$0 Vol.
39%
Dems +6.6–6.7%
$0 Vol.
39%
Dems +6.4–6.5%
$0 Vol.
39%
Dems +6.3% or lower
$0 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve according to the difference in the Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages for Democrats and Republicans for August 24, 2026.
The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading.
In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied.
The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point. Recent polling averages and economic indicators have kept trader probabilities tightly clustered around a Democratic generic ballot advantage of roughly six to seven points, with four outcomes each commanding 38-39% implied probability. This reflects ongoing uncertainty over voter sentiment in the lead-up to the 2026 midterms, where factors such as turnout patterns among key demographic groups, approval trends for the current administration, and the impact of recent legislative votes continue to influence expectations. Limited major announcements or shifts in the past week have prevented any single margin from pulling ahead decisively. Scheduled releases of national surveys on August 24, along with any last-minute campaign events or economic data drops, could quickly separate the leading brackets by altering crowd assessments of the final reported spread.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages for Democrats and Republicans for August 24, 2026.
The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading.
In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied.
The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.
The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading.
In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied.
The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 3:06 PM ET
Volume
$130End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the difference in the Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages for Democrats and Republicans for August 24, 2026.
The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading.
In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied.
The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point. Recent polling averages and economic indicators have kept trader probabilities tightly clustered around a Democratic generic ballot advantage of roughly six to seven points, with four outcomes each commanding 38-39% implied probability. This reflects ongoing uncertainty over voter sentiment in the lead-up to the 2026 midterms, where factors such as turnout patterns among key demographic groups, approval trends for the current administration, and the impact of recent legislative votes continue to influence expectations. Limited major announcements or shifts in the past week have prevented any single margin from pulling ahead decisively. Scheduled releases of national surveys on August 24, along with any last-minute campaign events or economic data drops, could quickly separate the leading brackets by altering crowd assessments of the final reported spread.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages for Democrats and Republicans for August 24, 2026.
The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading.
In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied.
The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.
The difference will be calculated by subtracting the number listed for Republicans from the number listed for Democrats, or vice versa depending on who is leading.
In the event that the market only lists brackets for one party, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the listed party if another party is leading in the average or if the average is tied.
The party ballot share numbers for the specified date must be finalized before it is considered for this market. A date's data points will be considered finalized once the data point for the next date is made available.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot, https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the party averages will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's Generic Congressional Ballot polling averages become permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the polling values to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the event that the resolution source changes to allow additional decimal points, the polling average difference will be calculated by subtracting using the unrounded percentages and then rounding to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.
Volume
$130End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages and economic indicators have kept trader probabilities tightly clustered around a Democratic generic ballot advantage of roughly six to seven points, with four outcomes each commanding 38-39% implied probability. This reflects ongoing uncertainty over voter sentiment in the lead-up to the 2026 midterms, where factors such as turnout patterns among key demographic groups, approval trends for the current administration, and the impact of recent legislative votes continue to influence expectations. Limited major announcements or shifts in the past week have prevented any single margin from pulling ahead decisively. Scheduled releases of national surveys on August 24, along with any last-minute campaign events or economic data drops, could quickly separate the leading brackets by altering crowd assessments of the final reported spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%?
28%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 ID-01 House election by 45%-50%?
40%
Will Democratic Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
93%
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