**Wyoming's 2026 Senate general election on November 3 features Republican Harriet Hageman, who won her party's nomination with about 65% in the August 18 primary, against Democrat James Byrd in a race rated safe Republican by forecasters.** This limited competitiveness, combined with the open seat after Cynthia Lummis's retirement and low Democratic primary participation, anchors trader expectations around moderate turnout. Historical midterm figures—roughly 198,000 ballots in 2022—support the leading 230K-250K range as the current consensus, while recent primary turnout of about 150,000 ballots (55% of registered voters) offers a near-term benchmark. Rural voter patterns and the absence of presidential-year mobilization further shape probabilities for lower or mid-range outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated230K-250K 37%
190K-210K 37%
<150K 31%
250K+ 30%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<150K
31%
150K-170K
29%
170K-190K
27%
190K-210K
37%
210K-230K
26%
230K-250K
37%
250K+
30%
230K-250K 37%
190K-210K 37%
<150K 31%
250K+ 30%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<150K
$0 Vol.
31%
150K-170K
$0 Vol.
29%
170K-190K
$0 Vol.
27%
190K-210K
$0 Vol.
37%
210K-230K
$0 Vol.
26%
230K-250K
$0 Vol.
37%
250K+
$0 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Wyoming's 2026 Senate general election on November 3 features Republican Harriet Hageman, who won her party's nomination with about 65% in the August 18 primary, against Democrat James Byrd in a race rated safe Republican by forecasters.**
This limited competitiveness, combined with the open seat after Cynthia Lummis's retirement and low Democratic primary participation, anchors trader expectations around moderate turnout. Historical midterm figures—roughly 198,000 ballots in 2022—support the leading 230K-250K range as the current consensus, while recent primary turnout of about 150,000 ballots (55% of registered voters) offers a near-term benchmark. Rural voter patterns and the absence of presidential-year mobilization further shape probabilities for lower or mid-range outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Wyoming's 2026 Senate general election on November 3 features Republican Harriet Hageman, who won her party's nomination with about 65% in the August 18 primary, against Democrat James Byrd in a race rated safe Republican by forecasters.**
This limited competitiveness, combined with the open seat after Cynthia Lummis's retirement and low Democratic primary participation, anchors trader expectations around moderate turnout. Historical midterm figures—roughly 198,000 ballots in 2022—support the leading 230K-250K range as the current consensus, while recent primary turnout of about 150,000 ballots (55% of registered voters) offers a near-term benchmark. Rural voter patterns and the absence of presidential-year mobilization further shape probabilities for lower or mid-range outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Wyoming's 2026 Senate general election on November 3 features Republican Harriet Hageman, who won her party's nomination with about 65% in the August 18 primary, against Democrat James Byrd in a race rated safe Republican by forecasters.** This limited competitiveness, combined with the open seat after Cynthia Lummis's retirement and low Democratic primary participation, anchors trader expectations around moderate turnout. Historical midterm figures—roughly 198,000 ballots in 2022—support the leading 230K-250K range as the current consensus, while recent primary turnout of about 150,000 ballots (55% of registered voters) offers a near-term benchmark. Rural voter patterns and the absence of presidential-year mobilization further shape probabilities for lower or mid-range outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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