Recent polling averages show Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by roughly 6–7 points amid President Trump’s approval rating near 38 percent and a persistent enthusiasm advantage for Democratic voters, consistent with historical midterm dynamics for the president’s party. This national environment underpins trader consensus around an 8–12 point Democratic popular-vote edge, while “Other” captures possibilities of a narrower result, Republican plurality, or larger swing. Mid-decade Republican redistricting has boosted GOP seat prospects but exerts limited influence on the nationwide popular vote itself. With Election Day about ten weeks away, late shifts in turnout, economic indicators, or campaign events remain key variables that could alter the final margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDemocrats 8-10% 28%
Democrats 10-12% 24%
Democrats 6-8% 18%
Democrats 4-6% 13%
$125,308 Vol.
$125,308 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democrats 16%+
1%
Democrats 14-16%
1%
Democrats 12-14%
7%
Democrats 10-12%
24%
Democrats 8-10%
28%
Democrats 6-8%
18%
Democrats 4-6%
13%
Democrats 2-4%
6%
Democrats 0-2%
2%
Republicans 0-2%
3%
Republicans 2-4%
3%
Republicans 4-6%
1%
Republicans 6%+
1%
Democrats 8-10% 28%
Democrats 10-12% 24%
Democrats 6-8% 18%
Democrats 4-6% 13%
$125,308 Vol.
$125,308 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democrats 16%+
$3,226 Vol.
1%
Democrats 14-16%
$2,535 Vol.
1%
Democrats 12-14%
$4,175 Vol.
7%
Democrats 10-12%
$8,183 Vol.
24%
Democrats 8-10%
$13,955 Vol.
28%
Democrats 6-8%
$14,162 Vol.
18%
Democrats 4-6%
$6,524 Vol.
13%
Democrats 2-4%
$15,293 Vol.
6%
Democrats 0-2%
$15,673 Vol.
2%
Republicans 0-2%
$5,211 Vol.
3%
Republicans 2-4%
$29,599 Vol.
3%
Republicans 4-6%
$2,946 Vol.
1%
Republicans 6%+
$3,825 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent polling averages show Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by roughly 6–7 points amid President Trump’s approval rating near 38 percent and a persistent enthusiasm advantage for Democratic voters, consistent with historical midterm dynamics for the president’s party. This national environment underpins trader consensus around an 8–12 point Democratic popular-vote edge, while “Other” captures possibilities of a narrower result, Republican plurality, or larger swing. Mid-decade Republican redistricting has boosted GOP seat prospects but exerts limited influence on the nationwide popular vote itself. With Election Day about ten weeks away, late shifts in turnout, economic indicators, or campaign events remain key variables that could alter the final margin.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Market Opened: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$125,308End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent polling averages show Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by roughly 6–7 points amid President Trump’s approval rating near 38 percent and a persistent enthusiasm advantage for Democratic voters, consistent with historical midterm dynamics for the president’s party. This national environment underpins trader consensus around an 8–12 point Democratic popular-vote edge, while “Other” captures possibilities of a narrower result, Republican plurality, or larger swing. Mid-decade Republican redistricting has boosted GOP seat prospects but exerts limited influence on the nationwide popular vote itself. With Election Day about ten weeks away, late shifts in turnout, economic indicators, or campaign events remain key variables that could alter the final margin.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$125,308End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages show Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by roughly 6–7 points amid President Trump’s approval rating near 38 percent and a persistent enthusiasm advantage for Democratic voters, consistent with historical midterm dynamics for the president’s party. This national environment underpins trader consensus around an 8–12 point Democratic popular-vote edge, while “Other” captures possibilities of a narrower result, Republican plurality, or larger swing. Mid-decade Republican redistricting has boosted GOP seat prospects but exerts limited influence on the nationwide popular vote itself. With Election Day about ten weeks away, late shifts in turnout, economic indicators, or campaign events remain key variables that could alter the final margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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