Vermont's at-large House district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in the trader consensus pricing the Democratic Party outcome near 94.5%. Incumbent Becca Balint secured her party's nomination with overwhelming primary support on August 11, 2026, while Republican Gerald Malloy advanced as the GOP nominee after defeating a weaker primary field. Recent University of New Hampshire polling shows Balint holding double-digit leads among likely voters, consistent with the state's voting patterns and historical results in this solidly rated Democratic seat. Low-probability shifts could still occur from a major scandal involving the incumbent, unusually depressed Democratic turnout, or a national political realignment favoring Republicans before November 3, though no such developments have emerged in the current cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVT-AL House Election Winner
VT-AL House Election Winner
$39,594 Vol.
$39,594 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
5%
$39,594 Vol.
$39,594 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$8,650 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$30,945 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Vermont's at-large House district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in the trader consensus pricing the Democratic Party outcome near 94.5%. Incumbent Becca Balint secured her party's nomination with overwhelming primary support on August 11, 2026, while Republican Gerald Malloy advanced as the GOP nominee after defeating a weaker primary field. Recent University of New Hampshire polling shows Balint holding double-digit leads among likely voters, consistent with the state's voting patterns and historical results in this solidly rated Democratic seat. Low-probability shifts could still occur from a major scandal involving the incumbent, unusually depressed Democratic turnout, or a national political realignment favoring Republicans before November 3, though no such developments have emerged in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$39,594End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Vermont's at-large House district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in the trader consensus pricing the Democratic Party outcome near 94.5%. Incumbent Becca Balint secured her party's nomination with overwhelming primary support on August 11, 2026, while Republican Gerald Malloy advanced as the GOP nominee after defeating a weaker primary field. Recent University of New Hampshire polling shows Balint holding double-digit leads among likely voters, consistent with the state's voting patterns and historical results in this solidly rated Democratic seat. Low-probability shifts could still occur from a major scandal involving the incumbent, unusually depressed Democratic turnout, or a national political realignment favoring Republicans before November 3, though no such developments have emerged in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$39,594End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Vermont's at-large House district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in the trader consensus pricing the Democratic Party outcome near 94.5%. Incumbent Becca Balint secured her party's nomination with overwhelming primary support on August 11, 2026, while Republican Gerald Malloy advanced as the GOP nominee after defeating a weaker primary field. Recent University of New Hampshire polling shows Balint holding double-digit leads among likely voters, consistent with the state's voting patterns and historical results in this solidly rated Democratic seat. Low-probability shifts could still occur from a major scandal involving the incumbent, unusually depressed Democratic turnout, or a national political realignment favoring Republicans before November 3, though no such developments have emerged in the current cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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