Strong semiconductor export momentum, fueled by global AI demand, underpins trader consensus around 2.5–2.9% YoY growth for South Korea’s Q3 2026 GDP at 51.5% implied probability. Q2 advanced 3.7% YoY and 0.6% QoQ, beating estimates and extending the Q1 pace near 3.8%, with chips comprising over 40% of exports and driving net exports. Institutions such as the Bank of Korea, OECD, and KDI project full-year 2026 expansion of 2.6–3.2%, revised upward from earlier outlooks, though moderating domestic consumption, rising inflation to 3.1% in May, and Middle East energy risks could temper the third-quarter print relative to the first-half surge. Upcoming Bank of Korea communications and September data releases remain key catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2.5–2.9% 52%
3.0–3.4% 30%
2.0–2.4% 11%
3.5–3.9% 8.9%
$39,123 Vol.
$39,123 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
<2.0%
2%
2.0–2.4%
11%
2.5–2.9%
52%
3.0–3.4%
30%
3.5–3.9%
9%
4.0–4.4%
1%
4.5–4.9%
1%
5.0%+
1%
2.5–2.9% 52%
3.0–3.4% 30%
2.0–2.4% 11%
3.5–3.9% 8.9%
$39,123 Vol.
$39,123 Vol.
Oct 26, 2026
<2.0%
$538 Vol.
2%
2.0–2.4%
$11,952 Vol.
11%
2.5–2.9%
$3,556 Vol.
52%
3.0–3.4%
$21,126 Vol.
30%
3.5–3.9%
$757 Vol.
9%
4.0–4.4%
$541 Vol.
1%
4.5–4.9%
$322 Vol.
1%
5.0%+
$331 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in Q3 of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 27, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Strong semiconductor export momentum, fueled by global AI demand, underpins trader consensus around 2.5–2.9% YoY growth for South Korea’s Q3 2026 GDP at 51.5% implied probability. Q2 advanced 3.7% YoY and 0.6% QoQ, beating estimates and extending the Q1 pace near 3.8%, with chips comprising over 40% of exports and driving net exports. Institutions such as the Bank of Korea, OECD, and KDI project full-year 2026 expansion of 2.6–3.2%, revised upward from earlier outlooks, though moderating domestic consumption, rising inflation to 3.1% in May, and Middle East energy risks could temper the third-quarter print relative to the first-half surge. Upcoming Bank of Korea communications and September data releases remain key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in Q3 of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 27, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$39,123End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in Q3 of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 27, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Strong semiconductor export momentum, fueled by global AI demand, underpins trader consensus around 2.5–2.9% YoY growth for South Korea’s Q3 2026 GDP at 51.5% implied probability. Q2 advanced 3.7% YoY and 0.6% QoQ, beating estimates and extending the Q1 pace near 3.8%, with chips comprising over 40% of exports and driving net exports. Institutions such as the Bank of Korea, OECD, and KDI project full-year 2026 expansion of 2.6–3.2%, revised upward from earlier outlooks, though moderating domestic consumption, rising inflation to 3.1% in May, and Middle East energy risks could temper the third-quarter print relative to the first-half surge. Upcoming Bank of Korea communications and September data releases remain key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in Q3 of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 27, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Volume
$39,123End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong semiconductor export momentum, fueled by global AI demand, underpins trader consensus around 2.5–2.9% YoY growth for South Korea’s Q3 2026 GDP at 51.5% implied probability. Q2 advanced 3.7% YoY and 0.6% QoQ, beating estimates and extending the Q1 pace near 3.8%, with chips comprising over 40% of exports and driving net exports. Institutions such as the Bank of Korea, OECD, and KDI project full-year 2026 expansion of 2.6–3.2%, revised upward from earlier outlooks, though moderating domestic consumption, rising inflation to 3.1% in May, and Middle East energy risks could temper the third-quarter print relative to the first-half surge. Upcoming Bank of Korea communications and September data releases remain key catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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