**Recent proxy indicators and analyst models point to modest Q2 2026 QoQ GDP growth near the lower end of historical ranges, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward the 0.3%–0.5% and 0.0%–0.2% bands.** Q1 2026 delivered a strong 1.1% QoQ expansion driven by government spending, household consumption, and favorable seasonal factors in agriculture. Proxies released in mid-August show clear moderation: the Central Bank’s IBC-Br index rose just 0.2% QoQ (with services contracting 0.1%), while FGV’s Monitor do PIB estimated 0.3% QoQ, led by consumption but offset by a sharp June contraction. These align with elevated Selic rates near 14% that have weighed on investment and real income, alongside fading pre-election fiscal stimulus. Industry and agriculture provided modest offsets (+0.5% and +0.3% in the IBC-Br), while broader 2026 annual forecasts from the Focus survey, Central Bank, and IMF remain clustered around 2.0–2.4%, consistent with quarterly growth in the 0.3%–0.5% area after Q1 strength. The September 1 IBGE release will resolve the market, with traders pricing in limited upside from resilient exports or commodities given the prevailing monetary restraint.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.3%–0.5% 56.9%
0.0%–0.2% 42.4%
0.6%–0.8% 2.4%
<0.0% <1%
$54,312 Vol.
$54,312 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
<0.0%
1%
0.0%–0.2%
42%
0.3%–0.5%
57%
0.6%–0.8%
2%
0.9%–1.1%
1%
1.2%–1.4%
<1%
≥1.5%
<1%
0.3%–0.5% 56.9%
0.0%–0.2% 42.4%
0.6%–0.8% 2.4%
<0.0% <1%
$54,312 Vol.
$54,312 Vol.
Sep 1, 2026
<0.0%
$1,503 Vol.
1%
0.0%–0.2%
$3,966 Vol.
42%
0.3%–0.5%
$21,865 Vol.
57%
0.6%–0.8%
$15,888 Vol.
2%
0.9%–1.1%
$6,647 Vol.
1%
1.2%–1.4%
$3,253 Vol.
<1%
≥1.5%
$1,190 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html**Recent proxy indicators and analyst models point to modest Q2 2026 QoQ GDP growth near the lower end of historical ranges, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward the 0.3%–0.5% and 0.0%–0.2% bands.**
Q1 2026 delivered a strong 1.1% QoQ expansion driven by government spending, household consumption, and favorable seasonal factors in agriculture. Proxies released in mid-August show clear moderation: the Central Bank’s IBC-Br index rose just 0.2% QoQ (with services contracting 0.1%), while FGV’s Monitor do PIB estimated 0.3% QoQ, led by consumption but offset by a sharp June contraction. These align with elevated Selic rates near 14% that have weighed on investment and real income, alongside fading pre-election fiscal stimulus.
Industry and agriculture provided modest offsets (+0.5% and +0.3% in the IBC-Br), while broader 2026 annual forecasts from the Focus survey, Central Bank, and IMF remain clustered around 2.0–2.4%, consistent with quarterly growth in the 0.3%–0.5% area after Q1 strength. The September 1 IBGE release will resolve the market, with traders pricing in limited upside from resilient exports or commodities given the prevailing monetary restraint.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Market Opened: Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Volume
$54,312End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html**Recent proxy indicators and analyst models point to modest Q2 2026 QoQ GDP growth near the lower end of historical ranges, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward the 0.3%–0.5% and 0.0%–0.2% bands.**
Q1 2026 delivered a strong 1.1% QoQ expansion driven by government spending, household consumption, and favorable seasonal factors in agriculture. Proxies released in mid-August show clear moderation: the Central Bank’s IBC-Br index rose just 0.2% QoQ (with services contracting 0.1%), while FGV’s Monitor do PIB estimated 0.3% QoQ, led by consumption but offset by a sharp June contraction. These align with elevated Selic rates near 14% that have weighed on investment and real income, alongside fading pre-election fiscal stimulus.
Industry and agriculture provided modest offsets (+0.5% and +0.3% in the IBC-Br), while broader 2026 annual forecasts from the Focus survey, Central Bank, and IMF remain clustered around 2.0–2.4%, consistent with quarterly growth in the 0.3%–0.5% area after Q1 strength. The September 1 IBGE release will resolve the market, with traders pricing in limited upside from resilient exports or commodities given the prevailing monetary restraint.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$54,312End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent proxy indicators and analyst models point to modest Q2 2026 QoQ GDP growth near the lower end of historical ranges, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward the 0.3%–0.5% and 0.0%–0.2% bands.** Q1 2026 delivered a strong 1.1% QoQ expansion driven by government spending, household consumption, and favorable seasonal factors in agriculture. Proxies released in mid-August show clear moderation: the Central Bank’s IBC-Br index rose just 0.2% QoQ (with services contracting 0.1%), while FGV’s Monitor do PIB estimated 0.3% QoQ, led by consumption but offset by a sharp June contraction. These align with elevated Selic rates near 14% that have weighed on investment and real income, alongside fading pre-election fiscal stimulus. Industry and agriculture provided modest offsets (+0.5% and +0.3% in the IBC-Br), while broader 2026 annual forecasts from the Focus survey, Central Bank, and IMF remain clustered around 2.0–2.4%, consistent with quarterly growth in the 0.3%–0.5% area after Q1 strength. The September 1 IBGE release will resolve the market, with traders pricing in limited upside from resilient exports or commodities given the prevailing monetary restraint.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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