Brazil's 2026 IPCA inflation expectations have converged near 5.0-5.1 percent according to the latest Central Bank Focus survey and government projections, supporting the market's heaviest weighting on the 5.00-5.49 percent bin. July's year-over-year reading eased to 4.44 percent—back inside the 1.5-4.5 percent target band—driven by slower food, transport, and fuel prices amid softer global oil. Persistent pressures from resilient domestic demand and fiscal risks have kept full-year forecasts elevated above the 3 percent midpoint, even as the Copom delivered a fourth 25-basis-point Selic cut to 14 percent in August. With four months remaining, incoming data on services and administered prices will determine whether the annual outcome settles in the narrow 5 percent range favored by trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5.00-5.49% 51.0%
4.50-4.99% 24.1%
5.50-5.99% 16.1%
4.00-4.49% 5.3%
$96,369 Vol.
$96,369 Vol.
Jan 11, 2027
<3.00%
<1%
3.00-3.49%
1%
3.50-3.99%
2%
4.00-4.49%
5%
4.50-4.99%
24%
5.00-5.49%
51%
5.50-5.99%
16%
6.00-6.49%
1%
6.50-6.99%
<1%
7.00%+
2%
5.00-5.49% 51.0%
4.50-4.99% 24.1%
5.50-5.99% 16.1%
4.00-4.49% 5.3%
$96,369 Vol.
$96,369 Vol.
Jan 11, 2027
<3.00%
$5,727 Vol.
<1%
3.00-3.49%
$5,787 Vol.
1%
3.50-3.99%
$13,189 Vol.
2%
4.00-4.49%
$14,068 Vol.
5%
4.50-4.99%
$15,470 Vol.
24%
5.00-5.49%
$14,547 Vol.
51%
5.50-5.99%
$9,613 Vol.
16%
6.00-6.49%
$6,485 Vol.
1%
6.50-6.99%
$6,683 Vol.
<1%
7.00%+
$4,799 Vol.
2%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil's 2026 IPCA inflation expectations have converged near 5.0-5.1 percent according to the latest Central Bank Focus survey and government projections, supporting the market's heaviest weighting on the 5.00-5.49 percent bin. July's year-over-year reading eased to 4.44 percent—back inside the 1.5-4.5 percent target band—driven by slower food, transport, and fuel prices amid softer global oil. Persistent pressures from resilient domestic demand and fiscal risks have kept full-year forecasts elevated above the 3 percent midpoint, even as the Copom delivered a fourth 25-basis-point Selic cut to 14 percent in August. With four months remaining, incoming data on services and administered prices will determine whether the annual outcome settles in the narrow 5 percent range favored by trader consensus.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Market Opened: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$96,369End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil's 2026 IPCA inflation expectations have converged near 5.0-5.1 percent according to the latest Central Bank Focus survey and government projections, supporting the market's heaviest weighting on the 5.00-5.49 percent bin. July's year-over-year reading eased to 4.44 percent—back inside the 1.5-4.5 percent target band—driven by slower food, transport, and fuel prices amid softer global oil. Persistent pressures from resilient domestic demand and fiscal risks have kept full-year forecasts elevated above the 3 percent midpoint, even as the Copom delivered a fourth 25-basis-point Selic cut to 14 percent in August. With four months remaining, incoming data on services and administered prices will determine whether the annual outcome settles in the narrow 5 percent range favored by trader consensus.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$96,369End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Brazil's 2026 IPCA inflation expectations have converged near 5.0-5.1 percent according to the latest Central Bank Focus survey and government projections, supporting the market's heaviest weighting on the 5.00-5.49 percent bin. July's year-over-year reading eased to 4.44 percent—back inside the 1.5-4.5 percent target band—driven by slower food, transport, and fuel prices amid softer global oil. Persistent pressures from resilient domestic demand and fiscal risks have kept full-year forecasts elevated above the 3 percent midpoint, even as the Copom delivered a fourth 25-basis-point Selic cut to 14 percent in August. With four months remaining, incoming data on services and administered prices will determine whether the annual outcome settles in the narrow 5 percent range favored by trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions