Recent U.S. economic data have anchored trader expectations for no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting, with the 61% implied probability reflecting resilient labor conditions and still-elevated inflation. July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year while core CPI held at 2.5%, and the unemployment rate eased to 4.1%, consistent with a stable but not overheating economy. Geopolitical pressures on energy prices have kept near-term hike odds elevated in futures markets, yet moderating core readings and forecasts for only gradual disinflation support holding the 3.50–3.75% target range into early 2027. Key upcoming releases on inflation, employment, and the September FOMC statement will influence whether the modest probabilities attached to 25-basis-point moves gain or lose ground.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 61%
25 bps increase 21%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 5.5%
$50,205 Vol.
$50,205 Vol.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
5%
25 bps decrease
14%
No change
61%
25 bps increase
21%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 61%
25 bps increase 21%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 5.5%
$50,205 Vol.
$50,205 Vol.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
$11,675 Vol.
5%
25 bps decrease
$10,999 Vol.
14%
No change
$16,164 Vol.
61%
25 bps increase
$9,561 Vol.
21%
50+ bps increase
$1,806 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. economic data have anchored trader expectations for no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting, with the 61% implied probability reflecting resilient labor conditions and still-elevated inflation. July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year while core CPI held at 2.5%, and the unemployment rate eased to 4.1%, consistent with a stable but not overheating economy. Geopolitical pressures on energy prices have kept near-term hike odds elevated in futures markets, yet moderating core readings and forecasts for only gradual disinflation support holding the 3.50–3.75% target range into early 2027. Key upcoming releases on inflation, employment, and the September FOMC statement will influence whether the modest probabilities attached to 25-basis-point moves gain or lose ground.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Volume
$50,205End Date
Jan 27, 2027Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. economic data have anchored trader expectations for no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting, with the 61% implied probability reflecting resilient labor conditions and still-elevated inflation. July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year while core CPI held at 2.5%, and the unemployment rate eased to 4.1%, consistent with a stable but not overheating economy. Geopolitical pressures on energy prices have kept near-term hike odds elevated in futures markets, yet moderating core readings and forecasts for only gradual disinflation support holding the 3.50–3.75% target range into early 2027. Key upcoming releases on inflation, employment, and the September FOMC statement will influence whether the modest probabilities attached to 25-basis-point moves gain or lose ground.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$50,205End Date
Jan 27, 2027Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. economic data have anchored trader expectations for no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting, with the 61% implied probability reflecting resilient labor conditions and still-elevated inflation. July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year while core CPI held at 2.5%, and the unemployment rate eased to 4.1%, consistent with a stable but not overheating economy. Geopolitical pressures on energy prices have kept near-term hike odds elevated in futures markets, yet moderating core readings and forecasts for only gradual disinflation support holding the 3.50–3.75% target range into early 2027. Key upcoming releases on inflation, employment, and the September FOMC statement will influence whether the modest probabilities attached to 25-basis-point moves gain or lose ground.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions