The Justice Department closed its criminal probe into former Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in April 2026, citing insufficient evidence of wrongdoing related to his congressional testimony on the $2.5 billion headquarters renovation project and referring the matter to the Fed’s inspector general. No charges have been filed, consistent with a March court ruling that prosecutors presented “essentially zero evidence” of criminal conduct. This episode highlighted tensions over central bank independence amid political pressure on interest rate policy, with the federal funds rate held in the 3.50–3.75% range through mid-2026 amid sticky inflation readings near 2.5–3%. Traders price negligible implied probability of indictment by year-end given evidentiary thresholds, prosecutorial discretion, and Powell’s completed term, though renewed scrutiny could theoretically arise from ongoing inspector general review or unrelated matters. Key near-term catalysts include September FOMC data releases and any congressional oversight developments.