Traders assign a 98% implied probability that Jerome Powell will not be imprisoned before 2027 because no credible criminal investigations, indictments, or legal proceedings target the Federal Reserve Chair, whose role centers on monetary policy decisions such as the federal funds rate and Treasury yield guidance rather than personal financial misconduct. Recent FOMC communications and economic data releases show no connection to regulatory or prosecutorial actions that could escalate to incarceration within the narrow window through year-end 2026. Historical precedent reinforces this consensus, as no prior Fed chairs have faced jail time. Tail-risk scenarios remain remote but could include unforeseen political retaliation, fabricated charges amid heightened partisanship, or an abrupt shift in enforcement priorities following the next presidential transition, though such outcomes would require extraordinary and unprecedented developments.