Persistent inflation near 4%—well above the FOMC’s 2% target—combined with solid GDP growth and a stable labor market has kept the federal funds rate anchored at 3.50–3.75% through mid-2026, with officials signaling potential hikes if price pressures fail to moderate. Recent July minutes highlighted broad-based price concerns and a willingness to tighten further, while projections and market pricing point to steady or higher policy through year-end and only gradual easing possibly delayed until 2027. This backdrop leaves little room for an emergency cut absent a sharp recessionary shock. A severe escalation in geopolitical tensions or an abrupt labor-market collapse could still force an earlier pivot, though such outcomes remain low-probability events given current data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
$144,864 Vol.
$144,864 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
7% chance
$144,864 Vol.
$144,864 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Persistent inflation near 4%—well above the FOMC’s 2% target—combined with solid GDP growth and a stable labor market has kept the federal funds rate anchored at 3.50–3.75% through mid-2026, with officials signaling potential hikes if price pressures fail to moderate. Recent July minutes highlighted broad-based price concerns and a willingness to tighten further, while projections and market pricing point to steady or higher policy through year-end and only gradual easing possibly delayed until 2027. This backdrop leaves little room for an emergency cut absent a sharp recessionary shock. A severe escalation in geopolitical tensions or an abrupt labor-market collapse could still force an earlier pivot, though such outcomes remain low-probability events given current data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$144,864End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Persistent inflation near 4%—well above the FOMC’s 2% target—combined with solid GDP growth and a stable labor market has kept the federal funds rate anchored at 3.50–3.75% through mid-2026, with officials signaling potential hikes if price pressures fail to moderate. Recent July minutes highlighted broad-based price concerns and a willingness to tighten further, while projections and market pricing point to steady or higher policy through year-end and only gradual easing possibly delayed until 2027. This backdrop leaves little room for an emergency cut absent a sharp recessionary shock. A severe escalation in geopolitical tensions or an abrupt labor-market collapse could still force an earlier pivot, though such outcomes remain low-probability events given current data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Volume
$144,864End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation near 4%—well above the FOMC’s 2% target—combined with solid GDP growth and a stable labor market has kept the federal funds rate anchored at 3.50–3.75% through mid-2026, with officials signaling potential hikes if price pressures fail to moderate. Recent July minutes highlighted broad-based price concerns and a willingness to tighten further, while projections and market pricing point to steady or higher policy through year-end and only gradual easing possibly delayed until 2027. This backdrop leaves little room for an emergency cut absent a sharp recessionary shock. A severe escalation in geopolitical tensions or an abrupt labor-market collapse could still force an earlier pivot, though such outcomes remain low-probability events given current data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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